Wind Advisory 12, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
922 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY COMING UP IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES DROPPING SOME ZONES AND REGROUPING
OTHERS. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED ADVISORIES FOR FREEZING PRECIP IN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE UNTIL 2 AM. IN THE NORTH EXPECT SLEET AND SNOW
TO GRADUALLY GO OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY 7 PM. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A SHORT
LULL IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE PRECIP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKS LIKE FROPA OCCURS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE BY MORNING.

900 PM UPDATE...PER CURRENT RADAR...PRECIPITATION UNDERWAY THROUGH MOST
OF FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY IN LIQUID FORM OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS
WHERE TEMPERATURES 35 TO 40. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS...STILL JUST AT OR UNDER FREEZING WITH FREEZING RAIN
BEING REPORTED. EARLIER THIS EVENING...WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY WHERE
IT WAS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM...TO MIDNITE. OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE PICKING UP...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ABOVE
FREEZING.  STILL EXPECT IT TO TAKE THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS/EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO SCOUR OUT THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR...SO PLAN ON STICKING
WITH ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

920 PM UPDATE...ALSO BASED ON CURENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOIST WIND ADVISORIES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA APROX
09Z-18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD SEE CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
WILL STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE THE
NEW MODEL RUNS AND DECIDE BETWEEN OFFICES. LINGERING MOISTURE AND
GOOD UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIR BUT COLD WX THURSDAY NGT THRU FRI AS AN UPR LVL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND SFC HI MOVE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. UPR LVL
RIDGE MOVES TO THE E COAST FRIDAY NGT AS WRM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH BROAD SW FLOW SFC TO H8. STILL UNDER THE UPR LVL
RIDGE SO ONLY SCT AND LIGHT PRCP PSBL FRIDAY NGT. AS THE UPR LVL
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE E THE BROAD SW FLOW DOMINATES WITH VERY WRM
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING ABV PLUS 10 C ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. PRCP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SATURDAY...SATURDAY NGT AND INTO SUNDAY
UNTIL THE CD FNT MOVES THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY. COLDER DRY WX FOLLOWS
FOR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH MOST -SHSN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
MORE NRN AND MT ZONES. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR
THURSDAY NGT THRU FRIDAY NGT AND GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...
EXCEPT FOR TEMPS SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY. THE GMOS WERE TOO COLD WITH
STRONG WRM AIR ADVECTION...SW WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SO USED GFS40
AND EVEN HAD TO RAISE THOSE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VFR ON THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY THEN IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
WRM AIR FOLLOWED BY A CD FNT BRINGS PRPC TO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
THURSDAY NGT IN CD AIR ADVECTION NW FLOW REGIME. HIGH PRES BRINGS
RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS UNTIL STRONG S OR SW FLOW SETS UP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU SUNDAY WITH SCA AND PSBL GALES
DEVELOPING. SCA OR GALES LIKELY TO CONT FOR AWHILE BEHIND A
PASSING CD FNT LATE SUNDAY AND CONT THRU MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ012>014-019>022.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NHZ001>006-009.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

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