Wind Advisory 10, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND THEM MOVE
OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SAT PICS
SHOWING CLOUDS INCREASING OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY.
STILL SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY MODERATING SOMEWHAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTENSIFY SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A FAIRLY
STRONG OVER-RUNNING PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT IN MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL
BRING WARMER AIR IN OF THE ATLANTIC CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS. LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION
TO BEGIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. LOOKING FOR ALL SNOW IN THE NORTH. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
SLOWLY WARM CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS...BUT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ALOFT MAY PROLONG THIS CHANGE IN
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 CUTOFF SLIDING E THRU OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW
HEADING NE TOWARD THE FA. SFC HIGH CENTERED NE OF FA KEEPING SOME
COLD AIR IN PLACE. STILL INCREASING E AND SE WINDS PUSHING IN
WARMER AIR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPS FROM SFC TO H8 AND AND VARIOUS THICKNESS FCSTS SUPPORT
MIXED R/S/IP ACROSS NRN TIER OF ZONES...WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION PSBL ACROSS MORE NRN ZONES AND ACROSS HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AND R OVER SRN AND COASTAL ZONES TUESDAY THRU TUESDAY
NGT WITH PRCP CHANGING TO MIXED -SHRA AND -SHSN THEN TO JUST -SHSN
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW LATE TUESDAY NGT AND
WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY CONT INTO TUESDAY NGT AND LIKELY TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER OPEN
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FCST HIGH WIND
CRITERIA WINDS THUS NOT PUTTING UP A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS COULD CREATE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING BUT BEACH EROSION AND ROUGH SURF MORE LIKELY DURING THE
HEIGHT OF THE STORM. PWM TIDES PREDICTED TO TOP OUT CLOSE TO 10 FT
WITH FLOOD STAGE AT 12 FT.

FAIRLY COLD AIR HOLDS IN PLACE UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE SW FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
AIR FCST TO MOVE IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY USED
GFS40...MAV MOS AND HPC QPF FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY AND GMOS
FOR REST OF LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT CEILING AND VSBY TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW
TONIGHT....MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRCP...RN FOR TAF SITES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NGT WILL PROVIDE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS PSBL FOR COASTAL TAF
SITES. VFR...WITH MVFR WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN...REST OF LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS JUST FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS AT THIS TIME SO
WILL LET ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 400 AM. WILL BE ISSUING A WATCH FOR
STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...INCREASING SE WINDS AND/OR
WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH STORM FORCE FROM W TO E TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONT TUESDAY NGT. MOS WIND GUIDANCE FOR BUOY SITES
SUPPORT STORM FORCE WINDS. ALSO BUFKIT SHOWING 50 KT WINDS
LOWERING CLOSE TO THE SFC AT PWM AND RKD WITH 70 TO 75 KT WINDS AT
2000 FT. EXPECT PEAK WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS OF 60 KT
OVER OUTER WATER AND 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF 50 KT OVER BAYS
DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FNT MOVE BY
WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY. SEAS BUILD VERY QUICKLY WITH RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS BUT WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ150>154-170.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

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