Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
252 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTLINE WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOOKING
AHEAD TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP A SEASONABLE AND
LARGELY DRY PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 230 PM...RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY POPCORN SHOWERS WILL LITTLE
ORGANIZATION. BEST COVERAGE IS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WEST...CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE. SHOWERS APPEAR DIURNAL...SO
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PEAK AROUND 400 PM...AND THEN START TO
DIMINISH. THUS FAR...INSTABILITY SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ENTER THE
REGION...THEN TO DISSIPATE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. EXPECT COASTAL
STRATUS TO BE PUSHED EVEN FURTHER EAST...WITH ONLY THE IMMEDIATE
MID-COAST HAVING A SHOT AS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EXPECTED. FEEL
NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS A TAD TOO WARM ON LOWS BASED ON LAST NIGHT
LOWS AND CURRENT DEW POINTS...BOTH OF WHICH ARE COLDER THAN MOS FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHEARING OUT 500 MB TROF FINALLY LIFTS ACROSS TOMORROW. BASED
ON ACTIVITY ALONG IT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW...BUT WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE AS THE SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER.
ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIURNALLY DEPENDANT...WITH SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON...AND EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS IN THE MORNING. NAM/GFS MOS BLEND LOOKS OK FOR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY ERODE AND MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD START NICE WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE GFS/NAM ARE BOTH SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN REGIONS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY...SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY NICE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VERY EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER. AT THIS TIME...FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS
NICE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY/SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN FOR NEW ENGLAND GIVING WAY TO SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 23Z...WITH MOST OF
THIS INLAND. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOO ISOLATED FOR A MOTION IN
TAFS...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. FOR
TONIGHT...TREND A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON RADIATION FOG
TONIGHT...FEEL MOS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON ITS DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENT LEB WILL FOG IN...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES.

IN THE LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING. LOWER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE SHORT TERM...WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
EXPECT AN EARLY SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET.
WIND/SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY. WAVES
GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...APFFEL/TAYLOR
MARINE...APFFEL/TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-020715-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
310 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ150>154-020715-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
310 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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