Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AND WILL STALL OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...STALLING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON AT THE MOMENT SO THIS WILL BE SHORT AND
SWEET. LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH POPS
INCREASING TOWARD MORNING IN WESTERN ZONES AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS IN
COASTAL AREAS AND AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTION ALONG THE MAINE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DUE TO SEVERE WX ACTIVITY USED GMOS WITH GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THE
SHORTER LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN COASTAL SECTIONS AND RIVER
VALLEYS IN STRATUS AND FOG. VFR ON MONDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...DUE TO SEVERE WX TDA
USED GMOS AND GFS40 FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...DUE TO SEVERE WX TDA
USED GMOS...GFS40 AND WNAWAVE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-231400-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
948 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE...TO INCLUDE YORK, CUMBERLAND,
ANDROSCOGGIN, SAGADAHOC, KENNEBEC, OXFORD, FRANKLIN AND SOMERSET
COUNTIES...IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY. OUR
FORECAST CALLS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS OR
BECOMES IMMINENT.

ANZ150>154-231400-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
948 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT APPLICABLE.

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