Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION FROM CANADA
WEDNESDAY...CRESTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN
ATTM...WHILE LESS IMPRESSIVE CELLS POPPING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN NH.
EARLY ON COMBINATION OF TERRAIN FORCING AND WEAKENING CAP IN THE N
WILL ALLOW CELLS TO DEVELOP BETTER IN THE TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...THEN A BETTER CHC ACROSS NH AS LINE TO THE WEST MOVES
THRU THE CWA LATE THIS AFT INTO THIS EVE. GYX 18Z RAOB SHOWS
SHALLOW MARINE LYR...WILL ALLOW FOR THREAT OF SVR ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST.

ONCE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WHEN THE FRONT ITSELF GOES THRU LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES
M/CLR IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND SHOULD ALSO WARM THINGS UP FAIRLY
WELL IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOME CLOUDS A SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE
IN THE MTNS AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH BRINGS WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THAT FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...BUT
COOLER AND SPMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM ...VFR CONDITIONS IN GENERAL...BUT TSRA COULD BRIEFLY
LOWER CIG/VIS TO MVFR/IFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING THRU THIS EVE.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KT...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AROUND
06Z...SHOULD SEE VFR RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM...REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-112000-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE HEATING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWEEPING MID LEVEL JET OF 50-75KT WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND
DAMAGE. SEE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK /ACUS01 KWNS/ DISCUSSION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

ANZ150>154-112000-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT BAY...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. MARINERS
SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

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