Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
329 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND OXFORD
COUNTY MAINE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN LOOKED A FEW
DEGREES TOO COOL SO RAISED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
OXFORD COUNTY MAINE FRIDAY AS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. COOL DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER
DAY. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NE THRU THE LONG TERM. AN
UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY THRU THE NE FRIDAY NGT THRU MONDAY
PROVIDING UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED WX. AN UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN
BRIEFLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CUTOFF LOW MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY
ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST
WESTERN MAINE LOCATIONS IN IFR CEILINGS WHILE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
NEW HAMPSHIRE HAD VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AFFECT THE LEBANON...CONCORD AND POSSIBLY THE PORTSMOUTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THAT...IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

IN THE LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AN UPR LVL
CUTOFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY THRU THE NE FRIDAY NGT THRU MONDAY
PROVIDING UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED WX WITH A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA
WITH PSBL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK PRES
PATTERN WILL CONT AS AN UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN UPR LVL RIDGE (AND SFC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES) MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLO
SCA LVLS THRU THE LONG TERM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
OXFORD COUNTY MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS EVENING...THEN
STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...
THE MONTHLY SUMMARIES FOR JULY WERE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO
INCLUDE THE NARRATIVE DISCUSSIONS FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. ALL
THREE SUMMARIES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. THE THREE
CLIMATE SUMMARIES INCLUDE PORTLAND MAINE /AWIPS IDENTIFIER
PWMCLMPWM/... CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE /AWIPS IDENTIFIER PWMCLMCON/
AND GRAY MAINE /AWIPS IDENTIFIER PWMCLMGYX/.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ007-012.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001>005.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
343 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

MEZ007-012-NHZ001>005-081945-
NORTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
343 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HIGH WATER OR FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO.

MEZ008-009-013-014-018>028-NHZ006>010-013-014-081945-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-
KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-
LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-
BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
343 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>154-081945-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
343 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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