Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1105 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL NORTHWARD
ACROSS REGION THIS MORNING. BOTH RADAR TRENDS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRYING TO SHOW SOME DRY SLOTTING FOR THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z NAM IS ALSO INDICATING THIS. ALTHOUGH I
AM NOT QUITE READY TO BITE ON THIS YET...THIS TREND CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING. IF OTHER 12Z MODELS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...THEN I
PLAN TO UPDATE AGAIN AND DROP POPS IN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME.
ALSO...WE WILL BE RELEASING A SPECIAL BALLOON AT 1630Z FOR A 17Z
SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND WE WANT TO SEE HOW THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHANGING.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MODEL QPFS MAY BE A
BIT OVERDONE...THERE STILL SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS WAVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE..HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
WESTERN MAINE. THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO CONTINUES FOR MOST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10
DAYS WITH SEVERAL CHANCES AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON FRIDAY
THIS CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET FOR HIGH TEMPS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE AS DEW PTS WILL BE DOWN IN THE LOW TO MIDS
50S. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM TO HOT DAY. I USED A BLEND OF THE MAV
AN MET FOR HIGHS. DON/T THINK IT WILL BE AS WARM AS THE MAV/S. DEW
PTS WILL BE RISING SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER SAT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
AGONIZINGLY SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH...NOT CLEARING THE COAST UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A SMALL CHC OF THUNDER TUE AFTN MAINLY IN THE MTNS
THEN HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE A DECENT WED. GFS HAS A POTENT SYSTEM
AFFECTING US THURSDAY. HOWEVER ECMWF KEEPS THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOG.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY NOON ON FRI THROUGH SAT AFTN
THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT
AFTN AND SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT VFR AGAIN SUN NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO CROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LATE SAT AND EARLY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001>009.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ010-013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

NEAR TERM...POHL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

MEZ018-023-NHZ010-013-014-241400-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL YORK-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-INTERIOR
YORK-STRAFFORD-
912 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT STRAFFORD COUNTY...YORK COUNTY
AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTY THROUGH 1000 AM EDT...

AT 912 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER NEWTON...OR ABOUT 9 MILES WEST OF
NEWBURYPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND EAST HAMPSTEAD...SOUTH HAMPTON...
PLAISTOW...NEWTON...DANVILLE...KINGSTON STATE PARK...KINGSTON...
KENSINGTON...BRENTWOOD AND EAST KINGSTON THROUGH 1000 AM EDT.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL PONDING IN STREETS
AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

POHL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

MEZ014-021-241445-
KENNEBEC-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
959 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KENNEBEC COUNTY AND SOMERSET
COUNTY THROUGH 1045 AM EDT...

AT 959 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF READFIELD...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF AUGUSTA...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND SIDNEY...READFIELD...
BELGRADE...VASSALBORO...WATERVILLE...ROME...OAKLAND...SMITHFIELD...
WINSLOW AND FAIRFIELD THROUGH 1045 AM EDT.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

MEZ018-019-241445-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR YORK-
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT YORK COUNTY AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY
THROUGH 1045 AM EDT...

AT 1014 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER ALFRED...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND LYMAN...
SPRINGVALE...GOODWINS MILLS...ALFRED...WATERBORO...BAR MILLS...
HOLLIS...LIMERICK...BUXTON AND STANDISH THROUGH 1045 AM EDT.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1126 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

NHZ008>010-013-241615-
BELKNAP-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-MERRIMACK-STRAFFORD-
1126 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BELKNAP COUNTY...STRAFFORD
COUNTY...MERRIMACK COUNTY AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTY THROUGH 1215 PM
EDT...

AT 1126 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11
MILES WEST OF NORTHWOOD TO 3 MILES EAST OF SALEM...MOVING NORTH AT
45 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
EAST HAMPSTEAD...BEAR BROOK STATE PARK...SUNCOOK...SOUTH
HOOKSETT...SANDOWN...SALEM...PLAISTOW...PEMBROKE...HOOKSETT AND
HAMPSTEAD THROUGH 1215 PM EDT.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN HALF AN
HOUR...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1216 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CANDIA                  43.08N 71.28W
07/24/2008                   ROCKINGHAM         NH   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN

1140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DEERFIELD               43.15N 71.22W
07/24/2008                   ROCKINGHAM         NH   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN

1150 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     NORTHWOOD               43.19N 71.15W
07/24/2008                   ROCKINGHAM         NH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR NORTHWOOD

&&

TAYLOR

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