Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...AND RIPPLES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES. SPC HAS PLACE MOST OF NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE
IN A WATCH THROUGH 9PM. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL GRAFTON
COUNTY IN NH...EASTWARD TO BOOTH BAY HARBOR IN MAINE. STORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME SURVIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE CONVECTION DIES DOWN...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FORMATION OF FOG. EXPECT RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN MOIST
AIRMASS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AROUND 1/4 MILE.

STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IMPACT DURING THE
MORNING WILL ONLY BE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THOUGH...POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT HIGH CHANCE POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
1.50 INCHES...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR WARM PROCESS HEAVY RAIN.
BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL MAINE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY.

THIS AREA GOT HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY...BUT IT WAS NOT CONCENTRATED. THUS...
THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY ONE PLACE MORE AT RISK THAN ANOTHER.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT
OF HEAVY RAIN AMONG MODELS (THE 12000 UTC GFS PLACES IT IN QUEBEC).
SO NOT FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...
SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL. SINCE THERE IS NOT
AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WERE USED FOR
LOWS.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN THE 1200
UTC NAM AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...WOULD TEND TO
FAVOR THE SLOWER GFS...AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORT.
IN ANY EVENT...INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MONDAY...SO WILL
NOT HIT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOO HARD MONDAY
AFTERNOON (WITH RESPECT TO ENHANCED WORDING).

BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE GFS MOS IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON ITS SLOWER SOLUTION...
THIS MAKES SENSE AND IS ACCEPTED FOR HIGHS. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY
DRIES MONDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW ALL AREAS TO EXPERIENCE
SOME CLEARING. WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE TAKING PLACE MONDAY
NIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS AS THE GFS MOS SEEMED
TOO COLD.

FOR TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT A MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE.
THUS...WILL FORECAST A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS MODELS SUGGEST TOO MUCH
ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.

AFTER TUESDAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LESS THAN
NORMAL. THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE KEY TO
HOW MUCH (IF ANY) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE WILL SEE
HERE. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL PROBABLY CARRY
A CHANCE MOST DAYS...THROUGH THIS MAY END UP BEING MORE PESSIMISTIC
THAN WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO A MODEL
BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL AFFECT TAF SITES FROM KPWM SOUTH. KAUG MAY BE
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR/LIFR IN PLACES. KCON AND KLEB ARE THE TWO SITES MOST LIKELY TO
BE AFFECTED BY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
WARM FRONT. AFTER THIS...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS COME UP TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS VFR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...3 TO 4 FOOT SWELLS HAVE FINALLY COME DOWN TO AROUND 2
TO 3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE SOUTH. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. OTHER
THAN CONVECTIVE ISSUES...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM...
WOULD EXPECT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT SOUTHWEST WINDS...BUT THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING ON THE PASSAGE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KNOTS...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT SURE THAT DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
WILL SUPPORT THAT.

WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS
MAY STAY UP ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SWELL
GENERATED BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SORTS ITSELF OUT. AFTER THIS...WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. STILL MUCH TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE SWELL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WILL AFFECT THE WATERS LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAYES/POHL
NEAR TERM...POHL
SHORT TERM...POHL
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...HAYES/POHL
MARINE...HAYES/POHL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

MEZ007>009-013-014-021-022-026>028-NHZ001-002-201745-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN SOMERSET-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ012-018>020-023>025-NHZ003>010-013-014-201745-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150-151-201745-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PENOBSCOT BAY AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ152>154-201745-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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