Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
244 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEAR DOWN ON THE REGION THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW
TRANSPORTING HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WX POSSIBLY THRU MIDNIGHT. GRADUALLY THE FNT MOVES
OFFSHORE CAUSING TSTMS TO TAPER TO -SHRA THEN END. LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS SINCE VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING THE 150
PERCENT THRESHOLD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THRU THE EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALLOWING SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR BY MORNING. GOING ABOVE MAV POPS FOR THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SEEM OK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A SUNNY WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND WILL BE APPRECIABLY NOTICED
ACROSS THE FA. USED A BLEND OF GFS/WRF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START FILTERING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOWS THE
WARM STICKY AIR TO RETURN. SHOWERS MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE
FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CLEARS THINGS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THRU THE EVENING TIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY AROUND
06-09Z WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FROPA AND THEN
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AND CONTINUE VFR CLR FOR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. BRIEFLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...WILL CONTINUE THE SCA THRU THE
NIGHT AS WINDS NEAR SCA CRITERIA AND SEAS CURRENTLY BUILDING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD FURTHER. LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH ALSO KNOCKING DOWN THE
SEAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ153-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-100715-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
312 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN EXIT THE
COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ150>154-100715-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
312 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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