River Flood Warning 1, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRES FOR THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COASTAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE DROPPED ALL WINTR STM WARNINGS AND WX ADVSRIES AS PCPN HAS
COME TO AN END AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRES SYSTEM RACES ACROSS NRN
MAINE THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SWRN ME THIS MORNING AS A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID LVL JET MOVES ACROSS THOSE AREA THIS
MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS ALOFT THIS MORNING SO
ANY LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. USED A BLEND OF FWC/MAV GUID FOR TODAYS
TEMPS.

RIVERS ALL SEEM TO HAVE CRESTED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH TIL 3PM DUE TO ANY ICE MOVEMENTS ON
SOME OF THE RIVERS THAT MAY CAUSE SUDDEN PROBLEMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
MODELS INDICATE AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF HANGING BACK THRU THE AREA
AND WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE COLD AS
PER THE BLEND OF FWC/MAV GUID SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS FROM A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE
REGION FROM THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE
ON THE MODELS FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. TUESDAY WILL START OUT NICE
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A WEAK LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH CANADA LEAVING US ON THE WARM SIDE...SO MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY WET IN THE SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL A BIG DIFFERENCE AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AS
TO HOW A FOLLOWUP COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK. ECMWF MOVES IT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BE
MUCH OF AN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL
DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE GALES THRU TODAY AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WSW WINDS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END SO NOW THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
LEFTOVER RUNOFF AND IF ANY ICE JAMS OCCUR. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS
THAT ALL THE RIVERS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR CLOSE TO CREST AND ARE
BEGINNING TO RECEDE.

FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3PM JUST IN CASE.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ018-019-023-024.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ005>010-013-014.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ007>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

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