Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
244 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
REFORM ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH AS
EXPECTED. STORM MOTION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...AROUND 10KTS. THIS IS
PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS HANDLING THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.
ALL ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...BUT AMOUNTS AND TIMING VARY A
BIT. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY HIGH...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THEN MOVES OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
THE PROSPECT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
NUMERICALS DIFFER ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES BUT IT SEEMS
SAFE TO SAY THAT WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA EACH DAY. SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
EVENT. THIS LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. WE
FIND OURSELF WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A FEW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW. A SECOND SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND IT APPEARS WELL MISS THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BRIEFLY BEFORE
FOG/STRATUS FORM UP AND GENERATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/IFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING IN SHOWERS AND FOG. TUESDAY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED
NIGHT EXPECT IFR IN FOG. WED AND THU EXPECT VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...WE MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THEN TRACKS JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ001>009.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...POHL
NEAR TERM...POHL
SHORT TERM...POHL
LONG TERM...POHL/SCHWIBS
AVIATION...POHL/SCHWIBS
MARINE...POHL/SCHWIBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

ANZ150>154-111915-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
308 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ010-013-014-111915-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
308 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

NHZ001>009-111915-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
308 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

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