Wind Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 010234
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
934 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

NCZ033-049-050-053-011100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080201T1400Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE
934 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY. 

THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...PEAKING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING
50 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FEET
IN ELEVATION. IN ADDITION...FREEZING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. THE WEIGHT
OF THE ICE COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN POWER LINE
AND TREE DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

GAZ010-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-011100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080201T1400Z/
RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD
934 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY. 

THE NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...PEAKING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 15 TO
25 MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FEET IN ELEVATION.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 010941
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-011400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080201T1400Z/
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...
CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD
441 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND RABUN COUNTY IN GEORGIA.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS WIND. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE ONGOING
ICE STORM...SUCH AS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM TEXAS.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE CROSSING GEORGIA AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  A WARMER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BLACKSBURG OFFICE HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING DOWN TO
WATAUGA COUNTY. WE WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND ISSUE A WARNING A LITTLE
FARTHER DOWN THE SPINE TO INCLUDE AVERY COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF
BURKE AND CALDWELL. FRANKLY...THIS IS A STRANGE LOOKING EVENT. THERE
IS VERY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS. FARTHER EAST THE AIRMASS RAPIDLY WARMS TO ABOVE
FREEZING AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF POSITION...CUTTING
OF BNDRY LAYER CAA. HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE SERVES TO COOL THE AIRMASS
AND MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES. THIS IS TRULY AN IN SITU PROCESS AND NOT ONE THAT I
HAVE SEEN ALL THAT OFTEN. WHILE IT/S DEBATABLE THAT MY CONFIDENCE IS
UPWARDS OF 80 PERCENT...THERE IS AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL
SEE DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE LEE WILL
ALSO HELP TO KNOCK DOWN LIMBS AND POWER LINES...EVEN WITH BORDER
LINE ICE ACCRETION. THE WARNING AND ONGOING ADVISORIES WILL BE
EXTENDED UNTIL 16 UTC FRI TO MATCH UP WITH RNK AS WELL. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS POINT...THOUGH WE WILL ALSO BE EYING THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TRIPLE POINT SEVERE THREAT FRI MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURS...BY FRIDAY EVENING THE STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA. AFTER 0Z SAT...I
WILL END POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER AND ADVERTISE CLEARING SKY COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
SETTLE OVER THE LOWER APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SAT. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKY...I WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT AGGRESSIVE WAA
WILL OCCUR BELOW 10 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT. I WILL INDICATE COOLING
TEMPS BELOW 3 KFT AND WARMING TEMPS ABOVE 3 KFT FROM 0Z SAT TO 12Z
SAT. I WILL DERIVE MIN TEMPS FROM HRLY TEMPS...ENDING UP WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA ON SAT...WITH MILD LLVL
THICKNESSES. LIGHT WINDS...FULL SUN...AND MILD TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SHOULD YIELD A VERY PLEASANT DAY. USING A BLEND OF MOS...I WILL
FORECAST U50S IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND L60S EAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EASTERN TN BY 12Z SUN. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL REINFORCE MILD LLVL TEMPERATURES
AND THICKNESSES. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH ELEVATION TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF START OUT IN BASIC
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST THE GFS BECOMES CHARACTERISTICALLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH A TROUGH IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DESPITE BEING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED.

AN EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHILE GULF MOISTURE BEGINS SPREADING NORTH OVER AN OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY TUESDAY THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS SHOW TO BE OVER THE ATLANTIC...WITH GULF INFLOW CONTINUING
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...EVEN IN THE SLOWER HPC/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...FOLLOWED BY
DRYING AND COOLING IN ITS WAKE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT. BY
THURSDAY A DRY SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 00-03 UTC THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF PCPN...THOUGH
WITH THE VERY DAY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...I DID DELAY AN HOUR OR TWO THE
ONSET OF IFR CIGS. FOR NOW I HAVE HELD OFF ON THE MENTION OF FZRA AT
KAVL. IT MAY WELL FALL FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE WITH COLD AIR
DAMMING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN QUICKLY TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRI.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE FRI AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEEKEND. MOISTURE
RETURNS MON AND TUE WITH A CHANCE OF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NCZ033-501-503.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ049-050-053-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
552 AM EST THU JAN 31 2008

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-011100-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
552 AM EST THU JAN 31 2008

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...GENERALLY ON RIDGE TOPS AND PEAKS ABOVE
4000 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>065-011100-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
552 AM EST THU JAN 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...GENERALLY ON RIDGE TOPS AND PEAKS ABOVE
4000 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ001>014-019-011100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
552 AM EST THU JAN 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LANE