Wind Advisory 17, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 091626
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1126 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...FROM
BAKERSVILLE TO ROBBINSVILLE. WINDS WILL REACH 25 TO 35 MPH...
WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL EXIST AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM NEWLAND SOUTH TO
ASHEVILLE...BREVARD AND FRANKLIN...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

NCZ048-049-051-052-058-100030-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081210T0500Z/
MADISON-YANCEY-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE
1126 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...FROM BAKERSVILLE SOUTH TO
ROBBINSVILLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NCZ033-050-053-059-062>065-100030-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-081210T0500Z/
AVERY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
1126 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM NEWLAND SOUTH TO ASHEVILLE...
BREVARD AND FRANKLIN. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 091946
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
BORDER...FROM GRAHAM COUNTY TO YANCEY COUNTY. WINDS WILL REACH 25 TO
35 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL EXIST AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM AVERY COUNTY SOUTH TO
BUNCOMBE... TRANSYLVANIA... AND MACON COUNTIES...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NCZ048-049-051-052-058-100400-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081210T1600Z/
MADISON-YANCEY-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE
246 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...FROM YANCEY COUNTY
TO GRAHAM COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NCZ033-050-053-059-062>065-100400-
/O.EXT.KGSP.LW.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-081210T1600Z/
AVERY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
246 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM AVERY COUNTY SOUTH TO
BUNCOMBE... TRANSYLVANIA... AND MACON COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH... WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$
LGL

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 092226
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REACH
25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
EXIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NCZ033-050-053-059-062>065-100630-
/O.CAN.KGSP.LW.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-081210T1600Z/
/O.EXA.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081210T1600Z/
AVERY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
526 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NCZ048-049-051-052-058-100630-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081210T1600Z/
MADISON-YANCEY-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE
526 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NED

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 100234
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
934 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REACH
25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
EXIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-101100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081210T1600Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
934 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 100833
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008

...GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REACH 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL EXIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-101600-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081210T1600Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
333 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$
07

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 101558
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008



NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-101700-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081210T1600Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1058 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. 


$$
LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS OVER THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT QUICKLY
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS
WAY NORTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A
RIDGE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE
EAST COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THIS
RIDGE WILL PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA WITH AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...AND SOME ISOLATED
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING IF ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING CAN BE REALIZED. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH CURRENT RADAR
COVERAGE FAVORS CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING...A BAND OF LIKELY COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGH CHANCE IN THE PIEDMONT...AND IN THE RAIN SHADOW ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MORE SO IN THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS. NAM SURFACE WINDS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE TN BORDER FROM
YANCEY COUNTY SOUTH TO GRAHAM COUNTY...AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF OUR NC MOUNTAINS.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS AND INCREASES
UPSLOPE FLOW. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH LIKELY POPS INTO THE PIEDMONT.
WIND PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. SOME
LIMITED CAPE IS SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS...BUT FOR NOW THUNDER WILL
BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO RECENT HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THERE IS GOING TO BE PLENTY OF ACTION IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE BIGGEST OUTLIER WITH A SLOWER SURFACE LOW
TRACK AND MORE SLUGGISH UPPER LOW FEATURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SREF
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN MUCH FASTER
THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. I HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DETAILS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH TEXAS
VICINITY AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE
LOW CENTER WILL SLIDE UP THE AXIS OF THE APPALACHIANS AS THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE FA FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD DWINDLE SOMEWHAT AS IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISCONNECTED FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF...EXPECT A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. CAT POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY.
ALSO...SREF PROB OF CAPE GREATER THAN 100 J/KG HAS INCREASED TO 70
TO 90 PERCENT WHICH IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL CARRY ISO THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-85 AND SOME AREAS EAST OF I-77.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG UP AND REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GA. OVERNIGHT...A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE OLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT TO SUPPORT LIKELY TO LOW END CAT
POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE CAME IN
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN THE INHERITED FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS RAW GUIDANCE BUT WILL INCREASE LOWS A GOOD 5
TO 7 DEGREES. THIS ESSENTIALLY REMOVES ANY THREAT OF CHANGEOVER TO
WINTRY PTYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD MARCH IN
EARNEST AS AN INSITU WEDGE DEVELOPS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE
PARENT HIGH IS NOT IN AN IDEAL LOCATION AND ISNT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
A CONSISTENT SOURCE OF COOLER AIR. IN FACT FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE
TREND I HAVE WARMED THURSDAY HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STEADILY INCREASE. WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS FOR
NOW...THOUGH THIS COULD BE INCREASED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST NEAR THE
OUTER BANKS AND CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD DRY UP PRETTY QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL...TOTAL QPF
NUMBERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE AROUND 2
INCHES FOR THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE SEEN IN THE MODELS IS WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW THU MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A THE OUTLIER AND THE UNRELIABLE MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF...GGEM...AND NOGAPS. THE SLOWER GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AND THIS LEADS TO MUCH
GREATER QPF AND COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. STILL
THINK SFC LAYERED TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE DAY ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY
LEFT OVER SNOWFALL SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES DO SUPPORT A P-TYPE MIX ACROSS THE NC
ZONES...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS VERY MARGINAL WITH THIS SCENARIO. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE -SHSN ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRI
MORNING.

THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS JUST COME IN AND THE TREND IS FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS RUN. THIS REALLY LEAVES THE GFS ALL ALONE WITH CUTOFF
H5 LOW...HOWEVER THE GFS COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING WITH ITS SLOWER
SYNOPTIC MOVEMENT. IT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO HAVE A CUT OFF LOW MOVE
SLOWER AND NOT YIELD EASILY TO AN OPEN WAVE AS FAST AS THE ECMWF AND
OTHER MODELS WOULD WANT. SO...SOME CREDENCE IS STILL GIVEN TO THE
GFS SOLN. THE SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS OF THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
ADDRESSED ON THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO GREATER QPF
AND COLDER TEMPS THAN WHAT IS FORECASTED ATTM.

INTERESTINGLY...THE MODELS COME TOGETHER PRETTY GOOD WITH H5 HEIGHT
RISES AND SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT. THERE ISNT
MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
IS A MODIFIED SOUTHERN ONE. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO REBOUND
FAIRLY WELL SAT TO NEAR NORMAL...AND A GENERAL WARMING TREND OF
MAXES/MINS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON. IF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PANS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS MON
COULD BE AROUND 5 F ABOVE NORMAL CWFA/WIDE. IN ANY REGARD...THE
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT ONE WITH LOW WIND SPEEDS...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST BY
DAWN...THEN WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. NAM MODEL CLOUD HEIGHTS FLUCTUATE FROM
LOW END TO MID MVFR DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...FALLING BACK TO LOW
END MVFR BY NIGHTFALL. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE MENTIONED
IN THE TAF. MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR FOG ARE EXPECTED FROM
DAWN TO MIDDAY...BUT ENOUGH WIND SHOULD BE AROUND IN THE EVENING TO
DELAY ANY NIGHTTIME FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH AT NC
SITES...AND BECOME VARIABLE AT SC SITES BY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME MVFR IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH....THEN WILL FLUCTUATE WITH THE MVFR RANGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EVENING COOLING...MUCH LIKE KCLT. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT SOME VFR BREAKS AT SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LACKING ON WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN. MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN DAWN AND MIDDAY...WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING. ONLY KAVL HAS BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND IT WILL BE THE ONLY SITE TO CARRY IT.

OUTLOOK...IFR IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. A LOW MOVING UP THE FRONT FROM THE GULF WILL
HOLD RESTRICTIONS OVER OUR AREA INTO THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...WITH VFR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-050-
     053-059-062>065.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ048-049-051-
     052-058.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
924 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-100230-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
924 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ036-037-057-100230-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-
924 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF IREDELL...DAVIE...AND ROWAN COUNTIES. THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT...MAINLY OCCURRING ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.