Wind Advisory 16, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 071110
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
610 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...

.GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
A COLD FRONT EXITING EAST TO THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-071700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-081207T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
610 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50
MPH...ARE OCCURRING FROM BURNSVILLE TO NEWLAND IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE VERY HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 50 MPH CAN ALSO BLOW DOWN WEAK
TREES AND LARGE LIMBS...AND PRODUCE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SLIPPERY ROADS FROM
RECENT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NCZ048-051>053-059-063>065-507-509-071700-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-081207T1700Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
610 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS IN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AREA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM THE GREATER ASHEVILLE AREA...TO
THE VICINITY OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER PEAKS.
THESE WINDS CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH DAYBREAK ON THE COLD
ADVECTION SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH LINGERING MTN UPSLOPE MOISTURE
AT LOW LEVELS THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY...AND MTN WINDS BECOMING
THE ISSUE BY DAYBREAK.

NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE NRN MTNS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
APPEARS WELL PLACED. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE IN MADISON COUNTY...BUT
ANY SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A BLEND OF NAM/GFS
850 MB WINDS SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NOON.
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OTHER AREAS OF THE NC MTNS
EXCEPT THE FAR SW. WILL THUS POST A WIND ADVISORY FOR NRN MTN
SECTIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NC
MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH DRY PROFILES IN PLACE. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING LATE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY...BUT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY...A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY
TUE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT.

ON MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. ON MONDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INCREASE...SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEFORE DAWN...AND
CHANCE POPS BY MORNING. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...AND A WARM NOSE IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS FREEZING RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND DAWN. POPS
INCREASE TO LIKELY BY EVENING AS UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SMOKY AND BALSAM MOUNTAINS AS THE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS.

AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD...AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND HEIGHTS RISE INITIALLY
     FOLLOWED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
EXT PERIOD. THE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SPLIT FLOW...YET
IN PHASE...UPPER TROF SETUP. THE PROBLEM ARISES WITH THE TIMING AND
THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE FASTER OUTLIER AMONGST THE 12Z
ECMWF...00Z GGEM AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN FACT...THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN H5 HEIGHTS AGREES VERY WELL WITH THE ROUGHLY 12/HR SLOWER
ECMWF. THE GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING
ACCOUNTED FOR AND LITTLE CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE GRIDS.

CONTINUED S/LY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WED...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPS
TO A CAT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL...THE WARMEST TEMPS SEEN IN ABOUT 2
WEEKS BY THAT TIME. CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GOM AND
INCREASING LIFT WITH APPROACHING H5 S/W AND INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL KEEP THE ATMOS PRIMED FOR EASY RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
END LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD. ENSEMBLE PROB HAVE A WIDE SWATH
OF 100 PERCENT 0.05 OR GREATER QPF CROSSING THE CWFA THROUGH WED AND
NOTHING HAS BEEN FOUND TO COUNTER THAT IDEA. SO...WITH VERY GOOD
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE AREA...WILL EXPECT AROUND
AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT ALMOST EVERY LOCATION...AND PERHAPS AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF ACROSS SEVERAL MTN LOCALES. 4 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG WED ...ABOUT 25 M/S...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A H10 TO H5 MEAN RH BETWEEN 80 AND 85 PERCENT
THROUGH THE DAY...SO ONCE AGAIN GOOD PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS
EXPECTED...BUT STRONG TO SEVERE TS IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...ISO AREAS
OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD SET OFF DEEP CONVECTION.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROF INSTIGATES COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
BY 03Z THU...JUST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ISENTROPICALLY ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND REMAIN N/LY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTEND...AND
MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE OP
GFS HAS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF THE GFS WILL CUT BACK THE
CHANCE POPS TO SILENT 20S THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL A
STRONGER DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT AS MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING...WEAK LEE
TROUGHING SHOULD REDUCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW NORTHWEST
FLOW TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KT THE BULK OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL RETURN OVER THE WEAK RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT KAVL UNTIL 09Z AS NORTHWEST
FLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. THE
BEST 850 MB JET IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN
FROM 09Z UNTIL 16Z...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT LIKELY AT
TIMES. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...NORTWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER CLEAR
SKIES BUT WITH ONLY BRIEF GUSTS AS WEAK LEE TROUGHING SETS UP. FEW
TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO
THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN
NORTHEAST GA TODAY...FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...AND NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-
     505.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-059-
     063>065-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG
FIRE WEATHER...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008

NCZ033-049-050-080015-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
706 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COATING OF SNOW AND/OR GLAZE OF ICE COULD
IMPEDE TRAVEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-NCZ035-048-051>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-080015-
RABUN-ALEXANDER-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
706 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. A COATING OF SNOW
AND/OR GLAZE OF ICE COULD IMPEDE TRAVEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-
080015-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
706 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NED