Tornado Warning 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLAINS-LIKE LAPSE RATES AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE UPSTATE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE MULTI-CELL AND A FEW
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 6 PM. TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN
HIGH IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH THE LLVL FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO VEER BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY SERVE TO LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD SEE RAIN AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE RESULTS IN PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE GFS MOVING IT OUT OF THE CWFA A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM. SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH 03Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT A QUICK ENDING
THREAT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LI/S BECOME POSITIVE AND WINDS
SHIFT W/LY AND COMMENCE DRYING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. LLVL RH WILL
REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT AND CHC POPS
LOWERING TO SLT HAVE BEEN KEPT THERE...WITH -SNSH DEVELOPING BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z ABOVE 3500 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT SN ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE SFC GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW AND DECENT H85 CAA KICKS IN AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE MTNS...HOWEVER
MOMENTUM TRANSFERS REMAIN BELOW ADV CRITERIA AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 14Z ACROSS ALL MTN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE MTNS AS CAA BEGINS AFTER 06Z AND
CLOUD COVER REMAINS HIGH...HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD STILL REMAIN A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FORM THE NW SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
END OF A THETA/E TROF MIXES INTO THE REGIONAL ATMOS. WITH FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH H7...DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SUN/S MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NON/MTNS AND RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MTN VALLEYS. PARENT HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND A DRY WEDGE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT MON. THE BEST LOWER THETA/E AIR WILL THEN WORK
INTO THE AREA AND MAX TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING NORMAL
UNDER ENE GUSTY FLOW. LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO MIX TO THE SFC MON
MAKING FOR A LOW RH LEVELS...25 PERCENT OR LESS...ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF NC AND SC...SO THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH MON NIGHT AND BY TUE MORNING THE SFC
LAYER FLOW WILL BE OUT OFF THE SOUTH AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND DEVELOPS A NEW HIGH CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
OPEN UP THE GOM AND A VERY GOOD INFLUX OF HIGH THETA/E AIR WILL
INVADE THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL BE NEAR 70
NON/MTNS...UPPER 60S MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
TX TUE NIGHT AND STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN A DESTABILIZED
ATMOS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NE/WD
THROUGH THE DAY WED. THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH UPPER PHASING OF H5
PATTERN...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12 HRS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS COME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS IN REGARDS TO ITS SFC
REFLECTION...HOWEVER THE LOW CENTER REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THAN
THE GFS. MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF SOLN AS THE 12Z GFS
REMAINS AN OUTLIER ACCORDING TO NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND RECENT MODEL
TRENDS. VERY NICE THETA/E RIDGING IS NOTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
BOTH MODELS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WED
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DONT INDICATE MUCH SBCAPE AS CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS IN
WAA FLOW...BUT ELEVATED CAPE WILL DEVELOP AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE AROUND 7 C/KM. ADDING TO THIS IS THE TIMING OF THE SFC
FRONT WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE LATER ARRIVING AROUND MID DAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE WED WITH PERSISTENT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE PRODUCING MTN -SNSH THROUGH 12Z THU.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE SCALE RIDGE. TEMPS THU WILL
RISE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THU AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRI AS
POLAR SFC HIGH MODIFIES IN INCREASINGLY DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS IMPEDING INSOLATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KAVL AND THE UPSTATE TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVES
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. KCLT SHOULD SEE THEM BETWEEN 20 AND 22
UTC...THOUGH I WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE CARRYING A PREVAILING OR
TEMPO GROUP AT THAT AIRFIELD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSE AND
GRADUALLY VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST SITES
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH AT LOT OF THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF CB/S. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF MOST SITES
BETWEEN 00 AND 03 UTC. AT KAVL LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON LONGER...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT IN THE RAF.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF CEILING/VIS
RESTRICTIONS IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1159 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-161600-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1159 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 119 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THE COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND
A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN AN UNUSUALLY
HIGH CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AREA
MOST AT RISK FOR SEEING TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THIS PUTS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-161600-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1159 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LOW. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

NCZ509-510-SCZ003-007-151845-
EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
210 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 245
PM EDT...

AT 209 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TIGERVILLE...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NORTH
  SALUDA RESERVOIR...TRYON...MILL SPRING...COLUMBUS...TIGERVILLE...
  LANDRUM...GOWENSVILLE...FINGERVILLE AND CAMPOBELLO.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

SCZ002-005-151845-
GREATER PICKENS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
215 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM EDT...

AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIBERTY...OR 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SIX MILE...
  PICKENS...NORRIS...LIBERTY...EASLEY AND DACUSVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

NCZ051-058-151900-
GRAHAM-SWAIN-
226 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN GRAHAM AND SWAIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STECOAH...OR 4 MILES EAST OF
ROBBINSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FONTANA
  LAKE...WESSER...STECOAH...SMOKEMONT...NEWFOUND GAP...LUADA...
  CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY AND ALMOND.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

SCZ006-007-010>013-019-152000-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...GREENWOOD
233 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...DANGEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING THE UPSTATE...

AT 225 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DANGEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY CROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER ACROSS
WESTERN ANDERSON COUNTY BETWEEN 315 AND 330 PM. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL EXIST SOUTH OF
I-85...ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ANDERSON AND ABBEVILLE...EAST TO
LAURENS AND GREENWOOD. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA UNTIL 7 PM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HAIL...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. PEOPLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
UPSTATE SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER.

LANE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

SCZ006>009-012>014-152000-
CHEROKEE-CHESTER-GREATER GREENVILLE-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-YORK-
303 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CHEROKEE...
LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...UNION...
CHESTER AND YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 302 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPSTATE.

STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.

VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WHEN TRAVELING THROUGH
THESE STORM STORMS AND WIND DRIVEN SMALL HAIL WILL BE MIXED IN WITH
THE HEAVY RAIN.