Tornado Warning 38, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 260325
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1125 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

GAC105-260400-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-080826T0400Z/
ELBERT GA-
1124 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR CENTRAL
ELBERT COUNTY...

AT 1121 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT TWO MILES WEST 
OF FORTSONIA...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF ELBERTON...MOVING NORTH AT 
13 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MIDDLETON...RUCKERSVILLE AND DEWY ROSE

THE THUNDERSTORM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...AND IF THIS TREND 
CONTINUES...THE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY.

LAT...LON 3400 8290 3419 8298 3422 8276 3399 8274
      3398 8280 3399 8282 3398 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 173DEG 11KT 3401 8283

$$

MOORE

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 260332
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1132 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

GAC105-260341-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-080826T0400Z/
ELBERT GA-
1131 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED TO THE POINT WHERE A TORNADO IS NO 
LONGER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTY 
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR 
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3400 8290 3419 8298 3422 8276 3399 8274
      3398 8280 3399 8282 3398 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 173DEG 11KT 3403 8283

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
954 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...CROSSING CENTRAL TENNESSEE
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WITH THE FAY REMNANTS PUSHING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THIS FRONT. THE REMNANTS
OF FAY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTINCT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAVE SLOWLY GIVEN WAY TO A DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS FROM THE SW. POPS WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND QPF AMOUNTS RAISED WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FAY
REMNANTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE MS/AL
BORDER OVERNIGHT AND IMPROVING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER JET DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ALL THE FORCING NECESSARY FOR 100 POPS SW TO HIGH LIKELY POPS IN THE
NW NC PIEDMONT. SINCE THE NRN TIER OF THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS HAVE
LARGELY MISSED OUT ON THE HEAVIER BANDS TODAY...I WILL NOT EXTEND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ANY FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AT PRESENT.
HOWEVER...THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR LOCAL TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF THE PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

LOW LEVEL HELICITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 200 M2/S2 SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NE GA. A BRIEF...ISOLATED TORNADIC SPINUP REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOCKED IN CLOSE TO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
MINS GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND THESE MINS WILL BE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN LINE WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS. SOME SLIGHT DEWPOINT DRYING IS POSSIBLE IN NE PIEDMONT
SECTIONS ON E/NE FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT FURTHER RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

THE 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PATTERN WITH THE GFS
REMNANT LOW CENTER FASTER AND FARTHER EAST THAN THE NAM BY LATE
TUESDAY. THE GFS POSITION REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
STRONG UPSLOPE AND HEAVY RAIN...AND THIS AGREES WITH HPC GUIDANCE.
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE WATCH
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING OUR CWFA UNDER DEEP
SLY/SELY MOIST FLOW...WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF VORT/LIFT PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA. THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL SHOW A MAX IN H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WITH CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVR THE
AREA...TUESDAY NIGHT. SO I INCREASED POP TO CATEGORICAL WITH A
MENTION OF SLGT CHC THUNDER (GIVEN ELEV/EMBEDDED CONVECTION EXPECTED
IN RAIN BANDS).

FROM WEDNESDAY ON THRU THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF S/W
PASSAGE AND UPR JET DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN DECREASES.
THE CENTER OF FAYS REMNANT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH OUR AREA STAYING IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. SO IT SHUD BE
RATHER UNSETTLED THRU THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WL
LMT DIURNAL TEMP RANGE (MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL/MIN TEMPS ABV NORMAL).
I WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND 1 TO 1.75 INCHES
ELSEWHERE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WK UPR FLOW OVR THE RGN (AREA ON ERN EDGE OF
SWRN CONUS RDG AND SOUTH OF A TROF OVR THE GREAT LAKES STATES). I
BLENDED THE NEW HPC GUIDANCE FOR THESE PERIODS. A WK LEE TROF ACRS
THE MIDLANDS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...AND OF COURSE THE MTN TOP CONVERGENCE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPS/POPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT...THIS PERIOD STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY HAS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE 12Z GFS
AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA FROM THE
DELMARVA...ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  BOTH MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY PROJECTED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.  I COULD HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT
MORE...BUT A RATHER BUSY MEDIA DAY AND NEIGHBORS GOING FOR LOW OR NO
POPS.  NEXT SHIFT OR TWO WILL REEVALUATE. AT ANY RATE...THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND FAIRLY SOLID COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH PROFILES ALREADY
MOIST AND ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVING IN...TAFS WILL BE AMENDED
THROUGHOUT TO FEATURE A WINDOW OF IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
TUESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...SO THUNDER WILL NOT BE
MENTIONED AT PRESENT...BUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE WITH ANY OF THE
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES IN. FLOW WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE E TO NE...EXCEPT WITH BRIEF SHIFTS TO
THE SE OR S AS RAIN BANDS MOVE THROUGH. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW EXCEPT DURING
INTERMITTENT LULLS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CIG TO MVFR VSBY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF FAY WEST OF
THE MTN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062>065-509-510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

NCZ036-037-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-270245-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
1036 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL ONE TO TWO INCH
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FAY LIFT JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. A VERY SMALL THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 85.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-509-510-SCZ001>007-
270245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
1036 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ033-035-049-050-056-501>508-270245-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
1036 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKE...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED ONE TO TWO INCH PER
HOUR RAINFALL RATES...AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE REMNANTS OF FAY MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010>012-019-270245-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
1036 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL ONE TO TWO INCH
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...AND ISOLATED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A TORNADO WILL
BE IN SECTIONS SOUTH OF A TOCCOA TO ANDERSON TO LAURENS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FAY
MOVE NORTHWARD PAST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
540 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W CONCORD             35.41N 80.68W
08/25/2008                   CABARRUS           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS CREEK OUT OF ITS BANK AND FLOODING POPLAR
            TENT ROAD.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

GAZ029-260400-
ELBERT-
1102 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
EDT...

AT 1100 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORTSONIA...OR 11 MILES
SOUTH OF ELBERTON...MOVING NORTH AT 18 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ELBERT COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

FORTSONIA...ELBERTON AND RUCKERSVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

MOORE