Tornado Warning 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 090132
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
933 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

NCC003-090143-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-080509T0200Z/
ALEXANDER NC-
933 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3596 8070 3592 8084 3598 8094 3604 8101
      3606 8098 3606 8069 3601 8069 3600 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 258DEG 29KT 3602 8081

$$

NCC097-090200-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-080509T0200Z/
IREDELL NC-
933 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTY...

AT 929 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNION GROVE...OR
ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YADKINVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

LAT...LON 3596 8070 3592 8084 3598 8094 3604 8101
      3606 8098 3606 8069 3601 8069 3600 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 258DEG 29KT 3602 8081

$$
ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
854 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OUT ON
FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH THIS FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NC SECTION OF THE
EXISTING TORNADO WATCH...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER
SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR
SECTIONS SOUTHWEST OF AN ASHEVILLE TO GSP LINE. TORNADO WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 1 AM OVER THE REMAINDER OF WRN NC AND THE
EASTERN SC UPSTATE CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 77.

MORE GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NC...AND LESSER COVERAGE SOUTH ACROSS SC AND GA. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE BAND CLEARS THE AREA BY 12Z FRI ALONG WITH ANY RESIDUAL
PRECIP. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY SCOUR CLOUDS AWAY AND EXPECT
GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRI. MIN TEMPS WERE
GENERATED BY USING A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE NC/SC STATE LINE. I EXPECT THAT THE
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA MAY REMAIN
NEAR THE TN LINE. MILD LLVL THICKNESSES AND INCREASING INSOLATION
SHOULD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S IN THE MTNS AND L80S EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DECENT S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS KY/TN WITH THE SFC
REFLECTION MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED ACROSS NC THROUGH THE MORNING...PUSHING
INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SC DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE MID
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO ROTATE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUN MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME A WEAK IN-SITU
AREA CAD...KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
LIMITED TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND
THE EASTERN UPSTATE MAY EMERGE OUT OF THE CAD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. ALLOWING CAPE TO BUILD TO 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH VEERING
LLVL WIND FIELDS. ALONG AND EAST OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. IT IS UNCERTAIN THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A LINEAR MCS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE TN BORDER AREAS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AS THE STORMS
WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TN. SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS OUTLOOKED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TS IN SPCS DY4.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND FIELDS FROM THE SFC TO 1 KM WILL STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN FACT...H8 WINDS BRIEFLY
REACH 50-60 KTS ON THE GFS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. I WILL INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND INDICATE GUSTS RANGING FROM 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG CAA COULD BRING H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE TN
LINE TO 0C BY 12Z MON. USING A BLEND OF NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND GMOS I
WILL PAINT THE MTNS WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...OVERALL THE 12Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF AGREE
ON THE GENERAL PICTURE MON THROUGH THURS. MON MORNING BEGINS WITH
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...WHICH MAKES LITTLE EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MON SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND BREEZY
WITH GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA. WILL CARRY SOME
CHC POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING SHOWERS. HEIGHTS RISE TUES AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST
BEGINS TO NOSE IN AND THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WARM 7 TO 8 DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING RIDGE.
CONTINUED DRY TUES NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING
SHAPE EARLY WED AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT
OF THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIFFER A BIT WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT BOTH SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE FA LATE WED. PERFECT PROG OF MODEL FIELDS
ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS BOTH MODELS CARVE OUT A
RATHER LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS WED
THROUGH THUR TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE BACK END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM ASHEVILLE
TO HICKORY...BUT TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT OTHER TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...SOUNDINGS...AND
CONSENSUS OF MOS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT AN MVFR CEILING COULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. WILL CONFINE MVFR
CIGS TO BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AT NC TAF LOCATIONS FOR NOW.

AN INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW CLEARING OF ANY
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE 850 MB LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL GEERALLY THROUGH SAT WITH
SOME MVFR CLOUDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AND CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-092045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
443 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND THE UPSTATE EAST OF SPARTANBURG. AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HICKORY TO SPARTANBURG TO CLEMSON LATER THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. THE AREA
THAT HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
717 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

NCZ033-501>505-082345-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER
CALDWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
717 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHERN
CALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN BURKE AND SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH
745 PM EDT...

AT 717 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE JAMES...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 36 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UPTON...
  PATTERSON...GLOBE...EDGEMONT...TABLE ROCK...COLLETTSVILLE AND
  ASHFORD.

LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             MORGANTON               35.74N 81.70W
05/08/2008  E0.25 INCH       BURKE              NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF 1/4 INCH HAIL.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
803 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             3 SW COLLETTSVILLE      35.89N 81.70W
05/08/2008  E1.75 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            BROWN MOUNTAIN BEACH CAMP GROUND REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED
            HAIL IN THE WILSON CREEK GORGE.

&&

DEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
808 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             LENOIR                  35.91N 81.53W
05/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   PUBLIC

&&

DEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
850 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GRANITE FALLS           35.80N 81.43W
05/08/2008                   CALDWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED FOR A FEW
            MINUTES AT GRANITE FALLS.

&&

DEO