Tornado Warning 19, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM KENTUCKY TONIGHT TO THE
VIRGINIA...NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND REMAINS
IN PLACE INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACRS THE EASTERN FA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING IN IT/S WAKE JUST OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ACRS EXTREME NE GA/SW NC AS OF
18 UTC. LAPS DATA SHOWS SLOW DESTABILIZATION WHERE SUNSHINE HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING...BUT CAPPED SNDGS WITH WARM AIR AROUND 600 MB.
IT REMAINS DEBATABLE ON HOW MUCH CAP CAN ERODE AND HOW MUCH MORE
ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE BEFORE FROPA. AT ANY RATE...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND JUST ISOLATED TSTM
CHANCE AHEAD OF FRONT THRU MID-EVENING WITH JUST TOKEN LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES THEREAFTER AS UPPER LOW SAGS SE INTO WESTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY MODELS STILL HANDLING FIRST SYSTEM WELL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY OFFSHORE BY MONDAY.  AFTER TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF US AS WE STAY ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN
NORTHWEST FLOW.  PREFER THE GFS IN THIS INITIAL SYSTEM BECAUSE OF
SLOWER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA.

SECOND IMPULSE BEGINS TO AFFECT AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST BEFORE THE DRIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH
SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEVER GETS PAST CHANCE CATEGORY.  I WENT
WITH HPC PREFERENCE FOR THE ECM ON THIS SYSTEM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST CONTINUITY.  NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HPC AND MOS
GUIDANCE SO IT GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND...BUT THERE WE LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS THE GFS
GETS OUT OF PHASE. A SOMEWHAT SKINNY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING UP THE EAST COAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS UPPER RIDGE
AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM TENNESSEE...BUT STALLS OUT.  APPEARS TO BE GOOD FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE DIRUNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT DAILY POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACRS THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THRU 00
UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE. OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT TWO
HOURS...WHERE RESTRICTIONS ACRS THE UPSTATE AND KAVL TAFS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...POSSIBLY EVEN A
CB...WILL BE AT KCLT/KHKY WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THE
LONGEST AND HAVE BEST CHANCE OF STABILIZING AHEAD OF FRONT.
PROGRESSIVELY VEERING LLVL WINDS TONIGHT IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN QUIET WX CONDITIONS...EXPECT POSSIBLY AT KAVL WHERE
SOME MVFR CLOUDINESS COULD WORK UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS
ACROSS WESTERN NC ON SUNDAY UNDER THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL WITH THE
UPPER LOW. SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW AT KCLT ON
MONDAY. TUESDAY COULD FEATURE SOME CLOUD COVER AS LIMITED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW OFFSHORE...BUT RESTRICTIONS
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN...LIMITED MOISTURE
DOES NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...VAD
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2008

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-201500-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1050 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-201500-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
1050 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
809 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008

NCZ068>070-200115-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-LINCOLN-
809 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLEVELAND...
NORTHWESTERN GASTON AND NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM
EDT...

AT 807 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF LAWNDALE...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
SHELBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VALE BY 825 PM EDT.
  LINCOLNTON BY 840 PM EDT.
  BOGER CITY BY 845 PM EDT.
  DENVER BY 905 PM EDT.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CLEVELAND...NORTHWESTERN GASTON AND NORTHWESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LAWNDALE...LINCOLNTON...BOGER CITY AND DENVER...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE