Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. CHANNELED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE LOWERED
DEW POINTS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FROM INTERSTATE 40 SOUTH TO
THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE REMAIN THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR FROM
THE NC MOUNTAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY... WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH IN THE MORE
LIMITED MOISTURE.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TRUE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR
AREA IS ACTUALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE THICKNESS PACKING AND RH BAND
WHERE THE MODEL PLACES THE FRONT...BUT EITHER WAY THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO OUR AREA SOMETIME DURING THE NIGHT. MODEL
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE PREMATURE
     BUT ON MONDAY DRYING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM THE NORTH...AT LEAST
IN WESTERN NC. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD BE ABSENT
FROM OUR AREA BY MIDDAY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL
BE SLOW TO DECREASE...EVEN IF THE MODEL FRONTAL TIMING WERE
CORRECT...AND CIRRUS FORM CONVECTION UPSTREAM PERSISTS. MAXIMUM
MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL A FEW DEGREE ON MONDAY DESPITE
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING HEIGHTS...AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LESS THAN IT WAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER AREA MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVG THRU RESULTING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUE...PUTTING AREA IN MOIST S RETURN
FLOW. A SFC WAVE IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL PLAINS DURING DAY TUE
AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY S OF AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK N AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT...BRINGING LOW CHANCE POPS TO
THE AREA. FRONT REMAINS WELL N WED-THU BUT WITH SFC LOW TO THE W AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST...CWA REMAINS IN WARM...MOIST S FLOW.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE IF ANY FORCING SO LOOK FOR ABOVE AVG TEMPS
WITH DIURNAL POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST. NEWEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT ALTERED OUR SYNOPTIC
PICTURE VERY MUCH. THE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS BY MID WEEK OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS IS A LITTLE DEEPER ON THESE RUNS BUT STILL SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. I STILL EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW TO POSSIBLY PROVIDE FORCING
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. I HAVE BEST POPS ON SAT AND SUN AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORHTEAST GA TOWARD KAVL AND KAND...BUT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR AT
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WEAKENING INDIVIDUAL CELLS. UNLESS A DIRECT
THUNDERSTOROM HIT IS APPARENT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CARRIED AT
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDOCATE DRYING
BETWEEN 850 MB AND 700 MB...WITH CIRRUS ABOVE AND LIMITED MOISTURE
AT AROUND 950 MB. A SCATTERED LOW DECK WILL BE CARRIED BLEOW THE
CIRRUS TONIGHT...EXCPET AT KAVL WHERE MVF VISIBILITY IS SUGGESTED BY
GUIDANCE....AND AN ACCOMPANYING MVFR CEILING WILL BE FORECAST. BY
MID MORNING MONDAY ANOTHER VFR LOW DECK IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE...
PROBABLY WITH MORE SCATTERD CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH BY THAT TIME THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...LIMITING THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH OF ALL OUR TAF SITES.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH A CHC OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON MTN SHWRS/TSTMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
522 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
522 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
907 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ033-011400-
AVERY-
907 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AVERY COUNTY THROUGH 1000 AM
EDT...

AT 904 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF HAMPTON...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ELIZABETHTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SUGAR
  MOUNTAIN...NEWLAND...MINNEAPOLIS...GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN...ELK PARK
  AND BANNER ELK.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
911 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

GAZ026-028-SCZ010-011415-
ANDERSON-FRANKLIN-HART-
911 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN FRANKLIN...HART AND
SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM EDT...

AT 908 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAVONIA...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 36 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BROADWAY
  LAKE...ROYSTON...REED CREEK...NUBERG...LAVONIA...HARTWELL...
  CANON...BOWERSVILLE...STARR...SADLERS CREEK STATE PARK...IVA...
  BELTON AND ANDERSON.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

07