Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
906 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SWIFT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO ALLOW STORM
CORES TO GROW RAPIDLY. STRONG ELEVATED SHEAR IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES MOVING INTO THE MTNS FROM ERN TN AND THESE
STORMS SHOULD SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SVR STORM WATCH 290 WILL RUN FOR
WRN NC AND THE NRN UPSTATE UNTIL 1 AM...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA BY MID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPPLYING NW WINDS WITH MARGINAL
GUSTS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
CAPE TO BUILD ACROSS ELBERT AND ABBEVILLE COUNTIES. I WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH A SCHC ACROSS THE AREA OF HIGHER CAPE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD THE MID 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AND MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...SAT NIGHT WILL BEGIN RATHER TRANQUIL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGED S OVER THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STATIONARY
FROM SOUTHERN SC INTO CENTRAL GA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/STRONG
MOISTURE FLUX COMMENCES LATE SAT NIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH RESPOND
TO THIS FORCING BY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING PRECIP FROM W TO E OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS EARLY ONSET OF
PRECIP ALLOWS FOR A WEDGE TO DEVELOP EARLY ON SUN AND MODELS
MAINTAIN IT ESSENTIALLY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY
TO SCOUR IT OUT. THEREFORE...EXPECT A COOL/RAINY DAY ON SUN OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER ON SUN DUE TO WEDGE
AND TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE S. WILL FORECAST
RAIN...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE E OF THE AREA BY
00Z MON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MOUINTAINS WHERE A RATHER
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST/UPSLOPE IS FORECAST. HENCE...WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE USUAL AREAS FOR UPSLOPE
PRECIP. UPSLOPE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
ELSEWHERE...A COOL NW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH BREEZING
CONDITIONS ON MON. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING MAX TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MAX/MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE POPS REASONABLE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDED
TOWARD A MORE ECWMF SOLUTION. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TUE INTO WED AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ON
WED...THE HIGH SHIFTS E ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE
ON WED. UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A MENTION
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WED NIGHT AND INTO THU AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A DRY
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY SPREADS SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING HAVE PRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE SHOULD
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE VICINITY OF KCLT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY PRODUCE ONLY VFR LEVEL CEILINGS AT KAVL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAKES THIS UNCERTAIN AT
PRESENT. SFC TO 850 MB WILL REMAIN POOLED ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS...BUT KEEP ANY CEILINGS AT VFR LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME
SOME MVFR CLOUDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING EARLY SUN MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AND CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SUN TO
SUN NIGHT. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON TO
WED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
610 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-101015-
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
610 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ001>014-019-101015-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
610 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
617 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

NCZ036-056-069-071-092245-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
617 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAIDEN...OR 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LINCOLNTON...MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  NORMAN...TERRELL...MOORESVILLE...MAIDEN...LOWESVILLE...
  LINCOLNTON...HUNTERSVILLE...DENVER...DAVIDSON...CORNELIUS AND BOGER
  CITY.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             DENVER                  35.53N 81.03W
05/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            NC   PUBLIC

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             5 SW CONCORD            35.36N 80.66W
05/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       CABARRUS           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED ABUNDANT PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE
            HAIL WITH SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
832 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

NCZ069-071-072-100100-
CABARRUS-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
832 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CABARRUS...NORTHERN MECKLENBURG
AND SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 831 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF HUNTERSVILLE...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF UNC CHARLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOWES MOTOR
  SPEEDWAY...UNC CHARLOTTE...KANNAPOLIS...HUNTERSVILLE...
  HARRISBURG...DAVIDSON...CROFT...CORNELIUS AND CONCORD.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK