Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ELONGATED TROF IS PREDICTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE NOW DIGGING ACROSS AR HAS A STRONG LLVL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. VAD WIND PROFILE AT BRANDON MS SHOWS A 55 KT SWLY JET AT 3
KFT. THE COLUMBUS AFB MS PROFILER HAS 60 KTS AT 3 KFT. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER MS AND MIDDLE TN. THIS JET WILL
TRANSLATE ENE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE MODELS EVEN
STRENGTHEN IT A LITTLE. THIS WILL MEAN VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS THE UPSTATE...SRN NC AND NE GA IN A FEW HOURS. SO EXPECT A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS...THOUGH ALL
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND THE ONLY SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE AN
ISOLATED MIX DOWN OF THE GRADIENT WINDS IN THE SRN NC MTNS. AREAS
FATHER TO THE NORTH MAY MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIER RAIN AND TSTM
THREAT...THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOME PCPN THIS MORNING.

FRONTAL BAND WILL BE PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE FA BY 18 UTC. I/VE
SPED UP THE TIMING OF PCPN...BUT AS IT STANDS I MAY STILL BE TOO
SLOW. THE NAM STILL HAS DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BAND AS CAA BEGINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER ARE NEARLY 50 KTS...AND BUFKIT GUST POTENTIAL IS IN THE
MID 30 KT RANGE MOST AREAS. 35 KT WINDS ACTUALLY HAVE A PRETTY HIGH
IMPACT IN THIS AREA...AND IT/S ENOUGH FOR ME TO UPGRADE THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO A REGULAR WIND ADVISORY. THE SIMILARITY OF THESE
PRODUCT NAMES IS UNFORTUNATE AS A WIND ADVISORY IS A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRODUCT. STRONG GUSTS WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE SW NC
MTNS...NE GA AND SW UPSTATE BETWEEN 18 AND 20 UTC...THEN TRANSLATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HRS. THEREFORE I/VA RUN THE WIND ADVISORY INTO MID
EVENING...THOUGH THIS IS TECHNICALLY MY SHIFT PARTNER/S PART OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE THE UPCOMING NWFS EVENT. OVERALL...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND GFS FOR THE FORECAST DETAILS.

TUES NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PUSHING OFF TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LLVL NW FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPS BACK UPSTREAM TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CAA WELL
UNDERWAY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS 850MB TEMPS FALL ACROSS THE
MNTS. AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG NW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC MNTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE TN STATE LINE. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TUES
NIGHT AND THINGS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN THE MNTS BY LATE TUES NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT THE TIME PERIOD BETWEEN 06-12Z WED WILL BE THE PRIME
TIME FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. DURING THIS TIME...BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS FEATURE THE DEEPEST LLVL MOISTURE AND BEST LAPSE RATES
WITH THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER REACHING UP TO AROUND -20 TO -24C.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG THE TN STATE LINE GENERATE SOME CAPE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD ON THE ORDER OF 25-50 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE
UPPER VORT MAX WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE FA. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BREAK CONTAINMENT WED MORNING AND MAKE THEIR
WAY OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE TN BORDER. DURING THE DAY ON
WED...LLVL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DRIES UP FROM SW TO NE...AND THE DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE ALSO DECREASES. CONCERNING POPS...WILL CARRY CAT
POPS IN THE BORDER COUNTIES EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00-12Z. THIS BEGINS
TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z...BASICALLY FOLLOWING THE RETREAT OF THE LLVL
MOISTURE. THINGS SHOULD TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICKLY WED NIGHT AS FLOW
AND MOISTURE BOTH BEGIN TO WANE.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY LIMITING FACTORS. FIRST...THE
DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE ISNT OPTIMAL AND DOESNT REACH INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ALSO...LLVL
WIND DIRECTION APPEARS TO BE AROUND 300 DEGREES FOR THE EVENT WHILE
AN OPTIMAL DIRECTION OF AROUND 320 WOULD BE PREFERRED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
WITH A POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES TAP...AND STRONG FLOW I CONTINUE FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES BY WED MORNING. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS A
GOOD BET IN THESE AREAS...WITH EVEN A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG NW FACING SLOPES. THEREFORE WILL UPGRADE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE INCLUDED COUNTIES.
ALSO...WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS BREAKING CONTAINMENT AND RESULTING IN LIGHTER ACCUMS JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA.

FINALLY ON THURS...UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES
EASTWARD. TEMPS WARM ACROSS THE FA BY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES AS SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MNTS THURS MORNING...DRY
THUR AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS
DRY...AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE TROF BRIEFLY...AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER
LOW TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH
PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA. THE GREATEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMPUTING
WEAKER SURFACE WINDS. THUS...ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A FULL-LATITUDE
TROF INTO THE EASTERN STATES LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A VERY WET FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE AREA ON
MONDAY. GFS IS STILL SHOWING GOOD PHASING OF THIS TROF WITH A RIDGE
THAT BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
SIGNIFICANT VALUES OF OMEGA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 00Z
ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL MAINTAINS THE SAME
OVERALL PATTERN CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THIS...I DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS TO SOLID CHANCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NRN GA AND THE WRN NC MTNS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING
IN THIS LINE. WHILE IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALL TAF SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHKY SHOULD
SEE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. SEE THE TAFS FOR THE
EXACT TIMING. LOW CIGS ARE ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LINE. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH LOW CIGS AND PERIODIC SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE TRUE
SFC FRONT WILL MOVE IN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TURN OUT OF THE
WSW AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES. TOWARD 00 UTC THE FLOW SHOULD
VEER MORE OUT OF THE WNW AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND SKIES
CLEAR. ONLY EXCEPTION TO CLEARING SKIES WILL BE KAVL. LOOKS LIKE
THEY WILL SEE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

WED THROUGH SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED AND THU. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE W FOR FRI-FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDING FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ053-059-062-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ035>037-051-052-056>059-062>064-068>072-082-502-504-
     506-508-510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-063-064-068>072-082-
502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-270915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
405 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ051-052-058-270915-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
405 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ053-501-503-505-270915-
BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
405 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ033-048>050-270915-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
405 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ059-062-270915-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
405 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ065-507-509-270915-
HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
405 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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