Severe Thunderstorm Warning 414, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...ALIGNED JUST W OF THE APPALACHAINS WILL CROSS THE
TN/NC BORDER THIS EVE AND PUSH THRU THE CWFA OVRNGT. THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED THANKS TO WLY LOW LVL FLOW. ALSO...MAIN
UPR LVL ENERGY ASSOC W/ L/W TROF/LOW OVR THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN
N OF THE AREA. SO JUST SOME ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT (PRIMARILY IN THE NRN MTNS...FOOTHILLS...AND
NC PIEDMONT). UNDER MID LVL CLOUDS AND MODEST CAA...MOS CONSENSUS
FOR MIN TEMPS LOOKS REASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY...FRONT PUSHES S AND E OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
COOL DRY AIR MASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LVL
CAA CONTINUING DURING THE AFTN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE WND THAN THE GFS. A BLEND OF THE TWO KEEPS WNDS GENERALLY IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 8-10F
COOLER WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES E AND LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT WED NIGHT-THU. UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER AREA BUT WITH LOW
MOISTURE AND SFC HI RIDGING IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTLY
MSUNNY TO PCLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI. LOWER THICKNESS
VALUES AND NLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW AVG TEMPS THU-FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...H5 CLOSED LOW OVER SE CAN WILL CONTINUE MOVG
NE SAT WHILE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE E US FILLS AND MOVES NE SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE W SUN-MON. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CNTRL CAN WILL RIDGE S OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THRU THE PERIOD AND A DRY FCST IS MAINTAINED. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVG. H5 RIDGE MOVES E AND WEAKENS
OVER AREA TUE AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W. SFC HIGH ALSO
BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE WHICH WEAKENS RIDGE
OVER AREA. THIS ALSO PUTS AREA IN MORE MOIST SE FLOW. WITH THIS IN
MIND...INCREASED CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
FOR TUE. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW AVG SAT-SUN...NEAR AVG MON...THEN
BELOW AVG AGAIN TUE DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND LGT WNDS THIS AFTN AND THRU MOST OF TONIGHT ACRS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED IN THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS
GOING TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT MOST. SO JUST A VCSH AND CB MENTION
AT KAVL AND KHKY (WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST). SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE HAS VSBY RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING (ESP AT
KAVL/KHKY/KCLT). GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION...MID-LVL CLOUDS
AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NW...NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. OF COURSE RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN
OR EVE WOULD INCR THE CHC OF SOME BR/FG.  OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO NWLY AND INCR TO
ARND 8-10 KTS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. FEW TO SCT CU ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH BASES IN THE 3500-5500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
KAVL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...ARK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

NCZ035-501-502-302045-
ALEXANDER-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
344 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER AND NORTHERN CALDWELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF PATTERSON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BLOWING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KINGS CREEK BY 410 PM EDT.
  ELLENDALE BY 430 PM EDT.
  TAYLORSVILLE BY 445 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RWH