Severe Thunderstorm Warning 407, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
849 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AS
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION TAPERING OFF WITH COOLING THIS EVE BUT STILL EXPECT
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE
L-M60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MAINLY 50S MTNS. SFC BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN JUST S OF CWA SUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTN...MAINLY S CWA NEAR BETTER MOISTURE ALONG BOUNDARY. AFTN HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE M-U80S WITH U70S-L80S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...I WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD. ON MONDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE H5 HEIGHTS. OVERALL
FORCING SHOULD BE VERY WEAK ACROSS THE CWA...LIMITING AND FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION WILL EXIST BETWEEN H6-H7. I
WILL FORECAST ONLY POCKETS OF SCHC COVERAGE MON AFTERNOON FOR
SHRA/TSRA. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD SHOULD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF
CENTRAL FL...BASED ON LATEST NHC TRACK. CONVECTION AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A OLD BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY/S PROFILES. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE OLD BOUNDARY...I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CHC ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SCHC
ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK AROUND 90 BEFORE THICKER CLOUD
COVER ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...THE NHC TIMING AND PLACEMENT ON T.S. FAY AND
THE 12Z GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. I WILL POPULATE THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE DUE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF FAY SHOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES INTO GEORGIA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN MOTION OF FAY MAY SLOW
CONSIDERABLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HPC POP GUIDANCE CONTINUES A MENTION
OF CHC COVERAGE DURING THE SAT PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED TRACK AND TIMING WOULD YIELD
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVE AND ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY GONE BY MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
MVFR FOG KCLT AND KHKY...IFR FOG AT KAVL. WITH HEAVY RAIN EARLIER AT
KCLT...COULD SEE TEMPO IFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT CU FIELD
AGAIN SUN AFTN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS...MAINLY S CWA.

OUTLOOK...SFC FRONT REMAINS JUST S OF AREA MON. PRECIP CHANCE
APPEARS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM FAY MAY APPROACH
FROM THE S AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-171930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
317 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

NCZ071-162315-
MECKLENBURG-
616 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...
MOVING EAST AT 7 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-77 AT
  I-85...CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...SOUTHPARK MALL...EASTLAND MALL...
  PINEVILLE...PAW CREEK...MINT HILL AND MATTHEWS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM...CAUSING
WATER TO POND ON ROADS.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
738 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

NCZ501-502-504-170045-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
738 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BURKE AND SOUTHERN CALDWELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 733 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAMEWELL...OR 6 MILES WEST
OF LENOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...LAKE RHODHISS...VALDESE...TABLE ROCK...SAWMILLS...
  RHODHISS...MORGANTON...LENOIR...ICARD...HUDSON...HILDEBRAN...
  GRANITE FALLS...GAMEWELL...DREXEL...CONNELLY SPRINGS...
  COLLETTSVILLE AND CAJAHS MOUNTAIN.

SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
847 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

SCZ012-019-170145-
GREENWOOD-LAURENS-
847 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENWOOD AND SOUTHERN
LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 842 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COKESBURY...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF GREENWOOD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE GREENWOOD BY 910 PM EDT.
  CROSS HILL BY 925 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

NCZ068-070-SCZ008-009-170345-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-GASTON-YORK-
1043 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...NORTHERN
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHWESTERN GASTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1041 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KINGS MOUNTAIN...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SHELBY...MOVING EAST AT 8 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN BY 1120 PM EDT.
  5 MILES SOUTH OF BESSEMER CITY BY 1145 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

NCZ068-070-170400-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-
1120 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLEVELAND AND
NORTHWESTERN GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHERRYVILLE...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF SHELBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHERRYVILLE BY 1135 PM EDT.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY