Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE OFF THE OUTER BANKS AND CONTINUE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE WATCH AREA COVERS MOST OF
THE NC MTNS...EXCEPT TRANSYLVANIA AND HENDERSON COUNTIES. COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN TN HAS RECENTLY INCREASE WITH A VIGOROUS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KY/TN LINE. THE UPDATE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
LIKELY ALONG THE TN LINE WITH CHC POPS EXTENDING INTO THE SC MTNS.
50-55 DBZ CORES NEAR 29KFT SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND 32-34KFT FOR SVR
HAIL.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH A HAZY SUNRISE IN
STORE. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND
PORTIONS OF NE GA ON TUE. HOTTER MAV TEMPS LOOK THE BEST CONSIDERING
THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY. COUPLING MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE (100-103 RANGE) AND
DEWPOINTS PROBABLY NOT MIXING OUT LOWER THAN THE 65-68 RANGE WILL
HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS MEETS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE FOR ALL
OF UPSTATE SC EXCEPT THE SC MOUNTAINS...PLUS ELBERT...HART AND
FRANKLIN IN NE GA.

MODELS ARE RESPONDING LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER NC WHERE BEST FORCING WILL EXIST AS WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HENCE...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE NORTH...HIGH CHANCE....TAPERING TO ISOLATED ACROSS THE FAR
S. HENCE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS NC ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE CHARLOTTE AREA WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON MORE CONSISTENT APPROACH TO APPROACHING COLD.
AGREE WITH HPC  FORECAST THAT FRONT WILL STALL NEAR NC/SC BORDER AND
THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.  CAPE VALUES OF
MORE THAN 1000 COULD GIVE US SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
BOUNDARY WHEREVER IT SETTLES IN.

SOME CONCERN ABOUT DROPPING THE MAX TEMPERATURES FROM LOW 100S IN
THE PIEDMONT ON TUESDAY TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AS INDICATED BY
MAV GUIDANCE.  SO I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV AND THE MET.

AFTER THAT THINGS START TO DRY OUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE
THE PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGH IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT THE 12Z GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND HAS MOVED AWAY FROM ITS 06Z RUN THAT FEATURED
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE FA ON FRI AND ESSENTIALLY
WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY LEAVING BEHIND A MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF
YET ANOTHER APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT ALSO LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SUPPORTING MAINLY DIURNAL CHC POPS EACH AND EVERY AFTERNOON
FOR THE EXTENDED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO BE SUPPRESSED NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER BY MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED
THUDNERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS UPSTATE SC...BUT THE ODDS OF A
STORM AFFECTING AN AIRFIELD IS QUITE LOW...SO NO MENTION OF VCTS OR
CB. MVFR HZ EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE 10Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
ON TUE AND HAVE HZ IN THE FORECAST EVERYWHERE. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS....BUT EXPECT MOST IMPACT AFTER 18Z SO NO MENTION IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON THU AND CONTINUING ON FRI.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ026-028-
     029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ004>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...NED/LG
SHORT TERM...VAD
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ035>037-056-057-064-065-068>072-501>510-SCZ001>003-
222000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
355 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
DAY SEVEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ004>014-019-222000-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION NC-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
355 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND A PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ON TUESDAY...,.VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR THOSE WORKING
OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH DAY
SEVEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-222000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
355 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
DAY SEVEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BANNER ELK              36.16N 81.87W
07/21/2008                   AVERY              NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BANNER ELK FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED A COUPLE TREES DOWN
            WHEN THE STORM CAME THROUGH. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
625 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

NCZ057-212330-
ROWAN-
625 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 625 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLEVELAND...OR 7 MILES WEST
OF SALISBURY...MOVING SOUTH AT 17 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHINA GROVE BY 650 PM EDT.
  LANDIS BY 655 PM EDT.
  6 MILES EAST OF ENOCHVILLE BY 700 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CULLOWHEE               35.31N 83.18W
07/21/2008                   JACKSON            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE TOWN

&&

VDICARLO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             BOILING SPRINGS SC      35.04N 81.98W
07/21/2008  E0.88 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC IN BOILING SPRINGS
            AND ONE TREE DOWN NEARBY.

&&

OUTLAW

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