Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SO FAR CONVECTION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING DEEP
ENUF TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENUF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS IN AFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL 9 PM. CONVECTION TONITE WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT...AS IT ENTERS THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM OR TWO COULD LINGER WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. HAVE KEPT A CHC POP ALONG THE TN BORDER...WITH SLIGHT CHC
POP ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS. LINGERING CLOUDS AND DWPTS IN THE
60S WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS
FOR MIN TEMPS.

MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF
FRONTAL BNDRY SOMEWHERE INVOF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SINCE MODELS
TEND TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAST IN PUSHING SFC BNDRYS THRU THE MTNS...I
WENT MORE WITH THE NAM FOR THIS FEATURE. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS IS
A SLIGHT CHC POP OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG AND S OF I-85.
ALSO...NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH UPR
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE MTNS FROM TN VALLEY DURING THE AFTN. IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT ISO TO SCT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN (ESP ALONG TN BORDER). WITH COOLER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S MTNS AND MID TO UPR
80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL DROP LOW
TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER A GOOD BIT OF THE FA TUE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY
OVER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE FA. THIS WILL NOT HELP FIRE
SUPPRESSION EFFORTS...NOR WILL BE GOOD FOR SOIL MOISTURE OVERALL AS
DRYING CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE EXCELLENT.

THE LONG WAVE WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND
WED...THOUGH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SEVERAL METERS HIGHER ON WED...MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH A
BROAD BUT WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN  LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...A BROAD BUT NOT VERY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NERN US THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE. A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH DURING MUCH OF
THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST...MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...AT LEAST
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. THIS DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE THU AND FRI...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

BY THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING...
DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL YOU BUY INTO. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE
GFS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE A WONDERFUL DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR
DROUGHT...BUT I GOT BURNED GOING WITH HIGH POPS WITH A NEARLY
IDENTICAL LOOKING SETUP A FEW WEEKS BACK. ALSO...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A STRONGER RIDGE DOWN ALONG THE GULF AND HAS NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION THAT HPC
FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...EVEN THE EC BRINGS A NRN STREAM SFC FRONT INTO
THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT...AND
IS CERTAINLY WORTH THE CHANCE POPS WE HAVE IN FOR SAT/SUN...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THE REGION AS A
WHOLE WON/T SEE MUCH PCPN IF THE HPC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING TSTMS NEAR TERMINALS. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...HOWEVER NO LOCAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
KEEPS UNCERTAINTY OF VCTS TO KEEP A BROAD TIME RANGE OF IMPACT WITH
NO TEMPO GROUPS. WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS AS TRENDS IN OBS/RADAR UNFOLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS LATE THIS EVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL WANE...HOWEVER SHEAR AND UPPER
SUPPORT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO CONTINUE MENTION OF TS OR CB AFTER THE 01 TO 02 TIME
FRAME. LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL
GENERALLY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL AT KAVL...AND WILL KEEP AN MVFR VSBY FOR THE NEAR-DAWN
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NC
MTNS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WX TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ001>007-010-011-301945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
345 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-012>014-019-301945-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
345 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 640 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND ISOLATED AREAS
OF DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

NCZ048-292015-
MADISON-
337 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARS HILL BY 355 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

NCZ502-504-292130-
GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
459 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BURKE AND SOUTHERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF MORGANTON...MOVING EAST AT 16
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VALDESE BY 520 PM EDT.
  LAKE RHODHISS BY 525 PM EDT.
  CONNELLY SPRINGS BY 530 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

NCZ036-292215-
IREDELL-
545 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF HARMONY...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
STATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HARMONY BY 605 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

NCZ036-037-057-292300-
DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
608 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IREDELL...NORTHWESTERN
ROWAN AND WESTERN DAVIE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 603 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF STATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 19
MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LANE

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