Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. DRIER AND MILD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET OVER THE REGION.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF STORMS JUST MOVING INTO
THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS TODAY HAVE NOT HAD AS HIGH OF
REFLECTIVITY IN THE MID LEVELS...OWING TO LAPSE RATES THAT ARE NOT
AS STEEP AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...DOWNSLOPE AND THE
VERY DRY SOIL OVER THE FOOTHILLS HAVE RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE U50S OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND WRN NC FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS...BUT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
CONTINUING TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION...STORMS SHOULD GO UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT 50-55 DBZ RETURNS UP AROUND 32KFT FOR
SEVERE HAIL. WE HAD A 37 KT GUST AT THE GRD ASOS EARLIER...AND THE
TCLT TDWR SHOWED SOME OVER 40 KT WINDS FROM A LOW TOPPED CELL OVER
LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH SUCH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LEE...AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE WITH NEARLY ANY
CELL...MAKING IT A TOUGH WARNING ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE
CORES THAT HAVE CAUSED STRONGER WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE LOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH H5 WINDS AROUND 20 KTS...A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES...AND SOME FORM OF LEE SIDE CONVERGENCE HELPING
TO INITIATE STORMS OVER THE SRN UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT. STORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. THE
THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF 3/4 INCH HAIL AND MICROBURSTS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 DEG IN THE LEE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GOOD CONVECTION DAY
WITH GOOD CAPE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA.  AFTER SUNDAY CONVECTION
THE REAL FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN TO CLEAR OUR MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION AS IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD ALIGNMENT AS FAR A SYNOPTIC POSITIONS ARE CONCERNED.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO A DRY
BIAS. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE TEMP FORECAST OTHER THAN SMOOTHING OUT
SOME OF THE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...12Z MONDAY IS A GOOD BREAK POINT AS HPC
PREDICTION HAS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA MONDAY MORNING.  THIS
CUTS OFF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF CWA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
TEMPS DROP A LITTLE BEHIND FRONT BUT WE START SEEING A WARMUP
BY THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS OF
CONVECTION...BUT IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PIN THAT DOWN.
MODEL OF CHOICE CONTINUES TO BE THE GFS...BUT THERE REALLY IS NOT
THAT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE EUROPEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. I HAVE INCLUDED A
CB AND VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL TRY AND TIME TEMPO GROUPS FOR
CONVECTION AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND START TO
AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT MVFR VALLEY
FOG IS AGAIN A GOOD BET AT KAVL. WON/T CARRY LOW STRATUS AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT IF THE AIRPORT SEES A GOOD SHOWER THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MUCH WORSE TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SOLID
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SO CB/S HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN...AT SPEEDS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA MAY INCREASE EACH
DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TUE AND
WED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...VAD
LONG TERM...VAD
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-280800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
352 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVLOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL THE SIZE OF
PENNIES OR LARGER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ON SUNDAY...STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KRENTZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

NCZ035-272200-
ALEXANDER-
526 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM
EDT...

AT 520 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELLENDALE...OR 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 22 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...MILLERSVILLE...HIDDENITE AND
  ELLENDALE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB