Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 061351
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
850 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

NCC075-173-061430-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080206T1430Z/
GRAHAM NC-SWAIN NC-
850 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM EST
FOR SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 844 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWFOUND GAP TO 4 MILES WEST OF 
SANTEETLAH...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STECOAH AND FONTANA LAKE BY 855 AM EST...
  CHEROKEE AND NEWFOUND GAP BY 915 AM EST...
  SMOKEMONT BY 920 AM EST...

LAT...LON 3543 8402 3547 8392 3552 8388 3557 8375
      3558 8360 3557 8351 3567 8335 3569 8326
      3546 8332 3545 8336 3535 8335 3527 8403
      3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 243DEG 55KT 3586 8367 3541 8384

$$
MCAVOY

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 061427
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
925 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

NCC075-173-061435-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080206T1430Z/
GRAHAM NC-SWAIN NC-
925 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 930 AM EST...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS. THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 


LAT...LON 3543 8402 3547 8392 3552 8388 3557 8375
      3558 8360 3557 8351 3567 8335 3569 8326
      3546 8332 3545 8336 3535 8335 3527 8403
      3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1425Z 243DEG 55KT 3610 8308 3565 8326

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY...BEFORE COOLER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 6Z WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE MS
RIVER..ENTERING WESTERN TN/MS...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT HAS BEEN SEVERE...WITH
NUMEROUS TORNADOES. THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL NOT REACH OUR CWFA UNTIL
LATE MORNING...BASED ON THE EXPECTED SPEED OF THE FRONT. THE GFS IS
STILL FASTER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH AN 18-00Z
PASSAGE...WHILE THE NAM HAS A 21Z-03Z FROPA. A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
USED FOR TIMING THE FRONT.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF SHEAR (90+ KT BULK SHEAR
MAG AND 350+ 0-2KM HELICITY)...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AS THE
FRONT PASSES. UPSTREAM...THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS TOGETHER
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH THE EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SO
A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND QLCS TORNADOES. AGAIN...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS WHAT INTENSITY THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE AND HOW FAST IT WILL RAMP
UP ONCE SOLAR HEATING BEGINS. SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...AND WELL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT
IN THE HWO.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE GUSTY
NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH SOLID LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVERYWHERE AND WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FT. NO REAL CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE
WIND FCST...AND FOR NOW THE WIND/LAKE WIND PRODUCTS ARE LEFT AS IS.

MODEL T-SECTIONS AND SOUNDING SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-MID CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTN...AND
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. SO IF THERE IS EVEN A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR)...TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. IVE GONE WITH THE 00Z MAV FOR MAX TEMPS
(TWEAKED DOWN A BIT IN SPOTS)...WHICH PLACES THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN
THE LOWER 70S (WHERE THE BEST CHC FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER NAM AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS TIMING PLACES FROPA CLOSE TO 00Z THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR. SOLID PRECIP CHANCES WILL THUS BE
MAINTAINED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOLLOWING FROPA...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WSW AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND THE NEXT
UPPER WAVES DIGS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. SUBFREEZING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INVADE THE SMOKIES ON THIS WSW FLOW...BUT WITH ONLY A
GLANCING BLOW OF THE COLDER AIR AND UPSLOPE MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

THE AFORE MENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVE SHOULD CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CIRCA 06Z FRIDAY...BRINGING FAIRLY HEALTHY DPVA TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS.
SLIGHT CHANCE HIGH MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
FORECAST...BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. SWIFT ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE WAVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ONE
TO TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGINNING AT 00Z SAT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF GREAT LAKES TROF AND ITS LLVL MASS FIELDS ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY SEEM TOO MOIST CONSIDERING THE MODELS HIGHLY TRANSIENT
PROGRESSION. THE ECMWF ALONG WITH THE GGEM AND HPC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
WEIGHTED ALONG WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN SAT
MORNING AS H5 S/W DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER JET
CORE ALIGNS FAIRLY MERIDIONAL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
BRING A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SAT AND
ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOW...STILL EXPECT A LOW END
CHANCE OF PRECIP AFTER 06Z SAT PERSISTING THROUGH SAT EVENING. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH H85
READINGS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1 C THROUGH 12Z SAT. HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RADIATE A BIT BELOW
FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A IP/SN/RA MIX. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE HANDLING OF IMPENDING ARCTIC AIRMASS FRONT IS MUCH DIFFERENT BTW
THE GFS AND ECMWF/GGEM SUN. THE GFS WANTS LLVL CAA TO BEGIN AT 00Z SUN
WHILE THE ECMWF DOESNT BRING THE GRADIENT IN UNTIL LATE SUN EVENING.
THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -20 C WHILE
THE ECMWF DROPS TO -5 C. QUITE THE DIFFERENCE AS FAR AS TRYING TO
TIME IN THE STRONGEST CAA WINDS...BUT BELIEVE RIGHT NOW THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL GET HERE AFTER 06Z SUN AND MAKE FOR POSSIBLY VERY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MID DAY. IN ANY REGARDS TEMPS WERE UNDER CUT FROM
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES SUN AND SOME WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO SLOWLY
MODIFYING ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...WHERE
AGAIN TEMPS WHERE DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES. ANOTHER SYSTEM BACKDOORS
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AS STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE SOME COLDER AIR MIXING IN...BUT
RIGHT NOW WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT ENTERS NE GA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS BY AROUND 15Z. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND
THE UPSTATE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON SOME LIFT TO KEEP
STRATUS AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...INCREASING
WINDS AS FRONT APPROACHES SHOULD HELP MIX THINGS OUT TO VFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTN...AND COULD
GUST OVER 25 KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SITES. UPSTREAM...OBS HAVE
SHOULD A SIGNIFICANT BACKING OF THE WINDS TO SSELY AHEAD OF A LINE
OF TSTMS. IVE INDICATED THIS IN THE PIEDMONT TAFS. THE TIMING OF
THE TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE INDICATED BY VCTS AND CB
GROUPS. IVE TIMED IT A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER THAN THE 06Z
TAFS...WHICH IS BASED MOSTLY ON TRENDS IN THE ACCELERATION OF THE
FRONT.

THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL SITES BY AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A GUSTY WINDS AT KAVL OUT OF THE NORTH. IT
COULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WSW AT THE PIEDMONT SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE VFR.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ017-
     018-026-028-029.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
552 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-071100-
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
552 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TODAY.
A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO
STRONG WIND SPEEDS ALOFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PURPOSE OF REPORTING
WIND DAMAGE.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-071100-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
552 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH DUE TO VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE
PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY...PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. A BRIEF...ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN OUTBREAK OF THE MAGNITUDE
OBSERVED THROUGHOUT TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY LATE YESTERDAY IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PURPOSE OF REPORTING
WIND DAMAGE.

HG