Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO CURRENT CONVECTIVE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND EXIT CWA
AROUND 00Z. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION BEHIND TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLOWLY DIMINISHING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING NIGHTTIME PERIOD.  STRONGER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL SWING TOWARD
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING MONDAY REACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF
CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANY
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE... BUT MOISTURE APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT
THIS TIME.  NONETHELESS... EXPECT CONVECTIVE STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT
WILL KEEP MONDAY AFTERNOON POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE TIME
BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
CHANCES WILL BE RETAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UPSTREAM OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER
DRYING EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RARE SUMMER DAY ABSENT OF EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC...AND MOISTURE GENERALLY REMAINS CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH W/NW UPPER FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
WEATHER...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 IN THE PIEDMONT AND ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSTM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL FLIRT WITH TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THRU ABOUT 01 OR 02 UTC BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
JUST DIMINISHING DEBRIS CLOUDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WILL PLAN ON ROUGHLY A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG THREAT. ANY VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY...
WITHIN A HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. BOTH THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS DEPICT
A VIGOROUS S/WV APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH IN THEORY
COULD PROVIDE A LARGER SCALE LIFT MECHANISM FOR MORE TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING. GRADUAL DRYING AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN THROUGH LATE WEEK PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LGL
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CSH

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