Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO CURRENT CONVECTIVE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND EXIT CWA
AROUND 00Z. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION BEHIND TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLOWLY DIMINISHING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING NIGHTTIME PERIOD.  STRONGER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL SWING TOWARD
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING MONDAY REACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF
CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANY
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE... BUT MOISTURE APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT
THIS TIME.  NONETHELESS... EXPECT CONVECTIVE STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT
WILL KEEP MONDAY AFTERNOON POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE TIME
BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
CHANCES WILL BE RETAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UPSTREAM OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER
DRYING EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RARE SUMMER DAY ABSENT OF EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC...AND MOISTURE GENERALLY REMAINS CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH W/NW UPPER FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
WEATHER...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 IN THE PIEDMONT AND ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT TO THE
EAST AFFECTING PRIMARILY AVL AND HKY THROUGH 00Z.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VICINITY OTHER TERMINALS... BUT BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CU AND TCU WITH BASES 4-5K FT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER 00Z. MID CLOUD DEBRIS AROUND 10K
FT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  AFTER 06Z VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO 4-6SM IN
FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDS ESPECIALLY NEAR AVL. VISIBILITY WILL
IMPRROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z MONDAY WITH SCATTERED CU 4-5K FT
DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL DRYING AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN THROUGH LATE WEEK PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LGL
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-230900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
457 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT INTO THE
EVENING. ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL. HOWEVER...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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