Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE DISSIPATING
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TO
START THE COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GROW IN COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
THE MINIMUM IN DEWPOINT SEEN IN SFC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE UPSTATE
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD FILL BACK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
BETTER DESTABILIZATION. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE REMAINS OF AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
SC LATER IN THE DAY. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PUSH THE
STORMS INTO THE UPSTATE AND UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT QUITE AS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES...WILL NOT YET GIVE UP ON THE LIKELY POP NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE ALL THE INSTABILITY IS USED UP TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS
WERE KEPT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MODEL TREND OF BRINGING
THE DRY AIR IN QUICKER CONTINUES...TO THE POINT WHERE THE MAV
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SUGGESTS A DRY DAY. THIS IS MOST DISAPPOINTING.
WILL START TO SCALE BACK THE PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY BUT WILL
OPTIMISTICALLY HANG ONTO CLIMO POP WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE OVER THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES WARMER
WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP...SO HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP SEVERAL
DEGREES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
FRI...WITH LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND FORCING PERSISTENT H5 EAST COAST RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. WITH THIS SETUP...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI WHILE A SFC HIGH REORIENTS OFF THE MID ATL
REGION. LOW LEVEL RIDGING STILL LOOKS TO BE STRONG AND THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AND SE/LY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW UP TO H6 WILL KEEP SHEAR LEVELS LOW. UPPER LEVEL
S/W ENERGY WILL BE WEAK AS 590 DM HIGH CENTER PERSISTS OVER THE
CAROLINAS EFFECTIVELY REDUCING SBCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. SO...THE MAIN
AREA OF -SHRA AND TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE A BIT
HIGHER SBCAPE INTERACTS MORESO WITH N/LY MOVING UPPER ENERGY. THE
GOOD RIDGING AT THE SFC AND MID LEVELS...WILL ALLOW GOOD INSOLATION
THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TOWARD THE MTNS. STREAMLINES INDICATE A BROAD LEE SIDE TROF OR
PER/FRONTAL TROF WILL SETUP DURING THE DAY AND MOIST SW/LY FLOW WILL
SATURATE THE MID LEVELS. WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH INSTABILITY SAT WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...BUT MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE IS
SHOWING UP ON THE CROSS SECTIONS...ENOUGH OF WHICH TO CREATE SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE ALONG THE SE/LY MOVING SFC BOUNDARY AND
AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE BEST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. COLD FRONT
REACHES THE MTNS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE GFS HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES
TO BE FASTER WITH THE PROPAGATION OF THE FRONT AND THE LOWERING OF
H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF FROPA IS
LATER SUN MORNING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AS
THE MID LEVELS DRY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS AND DEVELOPS A
NEGATIVE TILT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE ACROSS THE NON/MTNS
REACHING 2000 J/KG AND CIN BREAKING DOWN AFTER 15Z. THE ATMOS WILL
BE PRIMED FOR THE AFTERNOON FROPA WITH INCREASING H7/H5 LAPES RATES
AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING. STRONG DOWNBURSTING TYPE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS DELTA THETA/E VALUES OF NEG 25K DEVELOP DOWN TO
8KFT. THIS RELATIVELY DRY/COLD AIR COULD EASILY BE TAPPED INTO WITH
MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REACH 10KFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD BE
AN INTERESTING DAY AND A PRELUDE TO A POSSIBLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SHIFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH
OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA AND SC SUNDAY NIGHT.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BETWEEN FRONTS ON MONDAY.  GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF SYSTEMS IN THE LATER PART OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN GOING TOO DEEP OF AN
AMPLITUDE ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD MID
WEEK.  THE RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL AT NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN IN THIS LATER PERIOD WILL BE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE LAST WEAK FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA.  THAT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THEN WASH OUT MONDAY NIGHT.  CAPE VALUES
ON THE GFS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 100S TO HIGHEST
AROUND 1000 NEAR CHARLOTTE AT 00Z TUESDAY.  AFTER THIS MOVES OUT TO
THE SOUTHEAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVES IN AND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION A BIT SLOW TO INITIATE OUTSIDE THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO A PATCH OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE
MTNS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FIRE UP ALONG OLD
BOUNDARY TO SOUTHEAST WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE
EVENING. FOR NOW...THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH A VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES. VIS AND CIG WILL BE MVFR NEAR STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE UP AGAINST AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHEN UPSLOPE IS FINALLY ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER
VIS AND CEILING BUT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN BETWEEN TAF SITES. WILL
AMEND FOR LOWER VALUES AS NECESSARY. THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS SHOULD
DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITY COULD BE A
PROBLEM AT SITES THAT GET RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THURSDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-122030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
418 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND FAIRLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KRENTZ

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