Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
705 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN NC WILL REQUIRE
ANOTHER UPDATES. SKY COVER WILL BE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANVIL
CIRRUS SPREADING NORTH OUT OF SC.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS EXPECTED...
DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT IN THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED THERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ALONG WITH WARM MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO MAV MOS.

ON TUE...IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKE THE THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ARE GOING TO HAVE TO ENDURE ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HEAT.
EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST....H850 THICKNESS IS
STILL FORECAST TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 100. 12Z MAV MOS HAS
COME IN AT 98 FOR BOTH GSP/CLT WHICH MATCHES THEIR RECORD HIGHS. SEE
NO REASON NOT TO BUY INTO THOSE TEMPS AS EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. BOTH GFS/NAM BRING A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THERE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOOTHILLS BY 00Z AS BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE SPRING HEAT WAVE FINALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...NOT BY AN UPPER PATTERN CHANGE...BUT BY AN
INCREASE OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL FUEL MORE CLOUDS
AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THIS WILL BE MADE POSSIBLE BY THE 850MB RIDGE
BEING NUDGED OFF THE EAST COAST. THE BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW A DYING FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A RELATIVELY EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. AS INSTABILITY IS USED UP...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MOISTURE FLUX LATER IN THE DAY. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ACT TO KEEP A BIT
OF A LID ON HIGH TEMPS...ALL THE SAME...WENT WITH THE WARMEST OF THE
GUIDANCE AT EACH FORECAST POINT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ONE MORE TIME ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON SHOWER CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST...WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS TAKES THE FRONT FASTER TO THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF HAVING A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE EC HAS THE FRONT
OVER TENNESSEE EARLY SUNDAY...SO QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE.  INSTEAD
OF THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS HAS IT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO AROUND MOBILE AL LATE MONDAY.  THUS...THIS
WEAK FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING BOUNDARY.
SOME UPPER TROFINESS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
NATION TO START NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE MODELS AND THAT WILL HELP
IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AND SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR HAZE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN SC. WINDS WILL
COME UP FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING...BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE CUMULUS DEVELOPS WITH HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN
TUESDAY....BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IT IN THE KAVL
TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL HELP TO POOL MOISTURE AND TRIGGER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR IN WHICH
THEY LAST OCCURRED FOR GSP...CLT...AND AVL.

GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG

TUESDAY   6/10  98 1947
WEDNESDAY 6/11  99 1914

CHARLOTTE

TUESDAY   6/10  99 1947
WEDNESDAY 6/11 100 1914

ASHEVILLE

TUESDAY   6/10  90 1993
WEDNESDAY 6/11  88 1981

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LG
CLIMATE...LG/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
503 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-102115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
503 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S...TO AROUND 100...OVER
MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S IN
MANY INSTANCES. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...KEEPING THE
HEAT INDEX UNDER THE 105 DEGREE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND PENNY SIZED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
507 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

NCZ048>050-092200-
MADISON-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
507 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MADISON...NORTHERN
YANCEY AND NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 504 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAMSEYTOWN...OR 8 MILES
NORTH OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 12 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SWISS...
  RAMSEYTOWN...POPLAR AND FAUST.

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             8 NNE NEWLAND           36.19N 81.87W
06/09/2008  E2.75 INCH       WATAUGA            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BEECH MT. P.D. REPORT.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             8 NNW BAKERSVILLE       36.12N 82.21W
06/09/2008  U0.88 INCH       MITCHELL           NC   PUBLIC

            COCORAHS REPORT.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
713 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             4 SSE CHESTER           34.65N 81.19W
06/09/2008  E0.75 INCH       CHESTER            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             NW BULADEAN             36.11N 82.19W
06/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       MITCHELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             2 N BANNER ELK          36.19N 81.87W
06/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       WATAUGA            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BEECH MT POLICE DEPT PROVIDED HAIL REPORT.

&&

JPT