Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1048 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO THE CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF MOVES E AND 850MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER AREA
THIS AFTN AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES...LOW DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY HIGH THICKNESS
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SHOULD INCREASE 15 TO 20 M BY THU AFTN...TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES
OF 70 TO 75 OUTSIDE THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY 65 TO 70 IN THE
MTNS VALLEYS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW CATEGORIES ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND SOLID CHC POPS WILL BE WARRANTED FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MTNS...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OUT IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG
SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...BACKING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW...AND PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. 850 MB
FLOW WILL LIKELY APPROACH 50 KT BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...AS INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL PUSH POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND KEEP A LIKELY
THUNDER MENTION AS WELL GIVEN IMPRESSIVE MODEL CONSENSUS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS. WILL HIGHLIGHT A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO.

BRIEF NW FLOW HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY AS COLD AIR WRAPS BACK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE SHORT
DURATION AND THE LIMITED COLD AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SW U.S. ON
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE SLOWER ECM SOLUTION WILL BE BLENDED IN SLIGHTLY TO
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA SO MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FCST WITH
CLEAR SKIES NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEPER MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD
ENHANCE A LEE TROUGH E OF MTNS THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND
TO THE W TO SW ABOUT 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS LATE FRI AND TSTMS SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS WITH LOW DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES BELOW 25
PERCENT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTN. THE LATEST
10-HR FUEL MOISTURE READINGS ACROSS NE GA ARE 12-14 PERCENT AND MAY
COME CLOSE TO 10 PERCENT THIS AFTN. COORDINATION WITH USFS MAY LEAD
TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK/RB
FIRE WEATHER...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-130930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
525 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING INSTABILITY TO
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GERAPETRITIS