Alert archive / North Carolina / Red Flag Warnings in 2008

Red Flag Warning 29, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

December 30, 20086 counties in Georgia; 16 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this red flag warning at Dec 30, 2008, 3:09 PM EST for 6 counties in Georgia; 16 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Dec 31, 2008, 4:11 AM EST. It was in force for 14 hr. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Dec 30, 2008, 3:09 PM EST (20:09 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 31, 2008, 4:11 AM EST
Expired
Dec 31, 2008, 6:00 PM EST
In force
14 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
All 22 counties

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 31, 8:40 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMG3 W Rutherfordton, NCONE TREE DOWN ON UNION RD.
Dec 31, 9:30 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGLake Lure, NCPOWERLINES DOWN.
Dec 31, 10:00 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGLenoir, NCTWO TREES DOWN NEAR LENOIR WITH POWERLINES ALSO. THE TREES MAY HAVE COME DOWN AT DIFFERENT TIMES...BUT USED 10 AM AS GENERAL REFERENCE.
Dec 31, 10:00 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGMorganton, NCPOWERLINES REPORTED DOWN IN BURKE COUNTY.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2008-12-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2008-12-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 45 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3435 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 302009
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-311100-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.W.0029.081231T1200Z-081231T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
309 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUEL MOISTURE AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 25 MPH...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
4 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS82 KGSP 310911
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-311715-
/O.EXA.KGSP.FW.W.0029.081231T1200Z-081231T2300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
411 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35
MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN PLACES. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LOWER. WITH
FUEL MOISTURE REPORTED TO BE LOW...THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATLY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY LOW WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-311715-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0029.081231T1200Z-081231T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
411 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT...POSSIBLY
A LITTLE LOWER. WITH FUEL MOISTURE REPORTED TO BE LOW...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GREATLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

MCAVOY
000 
WWUS82 KGSP 311622
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1122 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
312300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-081231T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
1122 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 60
MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH SOME READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW FUEL MOISTURE...VERY LOW HUMIDITY...AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL RESULT IN GREATLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
TODAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
000 
WWUS82 KGSP 311946
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-312315-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.W.0001.090101T1600Z-090102T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-081231T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
246 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER ON
THURSDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND
20 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-312300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-081231T2300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
246 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
000 
WWUS82 KGSP 312259
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-010645-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-081231T2300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0001.090101T1600Z-090102T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
558 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. A 
SECOND RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY.

GUSTY WINDS HAVE ABATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS THUS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL ONCE AGAIN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH DRY BRUSH
AND FUELS TO HEIGHTEN THE DANGER OF WILDFIRES.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY BRUSH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
FIRES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD.

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-010000-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-081231T2300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
558 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

GUSTY WINDS HAVE ABATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS THUS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

$$

HG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Dec 30, 2:29 PM EST, 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 30, 2:29 PM EST, 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEFINED BY THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIND SHOULD PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS APART
FROM THE TN BORDER. THE WIND WILL BE ANOTHER STORY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND 850MB WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 KT SUGGESTS
EXCELLENT WIND GUST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUIDANCE
FALLS SHORT OF SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AS MIXING
WILL BE ONLY SHALLOW AND 700MB WIND NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS
EVENTS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO UPGRADE THE ONGOING WATCH
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIME OF ONSET...WHICH IS
FIRST THING WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND
ADVOSORY FOR THE REST OF THE MTN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL ZONES BASED
ON GUST POTENTIAL. THE PIEDMONT ZONES SHOULD REACH LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THAT WILL BE LEFT TO THE MID SHIFT. FOLLOWED
THE LEAD OF THE MID SHIFT AND UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH
TEMP FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
MODEL PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS SEASON. AS FOR NW FLOW SNOW
POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS MARGINAL WITH LIMITED MOISTURE FOR A SHORT
WHILE IN THE MORNING...SO POP WAS KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE. AMOUNTS
AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...SO NO THOUGHTS OF
AN ADVISORY WERE ENTERTAINED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND UNDER A SKY CLEAR...NEW YEARS
EVE IS SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY WITH THURSDAY MORNING MINS ABOUT 6-8
DEG F BELOW NORMAL. SFC RIDGING TO TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWFA NEW YEARS
DAY...BUT ONSET OF WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DO LITTLE FOR ANY TEMPERATURE
MODERATION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHADE MAXES JUST UNDER THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE.

STILL EXPECTING QUICK MOISTENING OF THE 100-70H LAYER AS THURSDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. WITH THE WEAK
FORCING EXPECTED AND JUST A MODERATE AMT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FELT
THAT THE 09 UTC SREF WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH RESPECT TO POP...AND
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCES ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
CWFA. THE 12 GGEM LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SOLUTION IN KEEPING
MEASURABLE PCPN NW AND SW OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY.
NONETHELESS... BASED ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF FCST SNDGS...ANY
LIGHT PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IS FCST TO BE
FROZEN.

HATE TO RUN THE RISK OF FLIP-FLOPPING...BUT EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE MEMBER...THE OP GFS...BARELY HAS A LIKELY POP FOR FRIDAY AS
UPPER SYSTEM AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION MOVES QUICKLY ON THRU BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PARED BACK OVERALL FRIDAY POPS TO
JUST MID-CHANCE. AS THE CRITICAL MID-LVL THICKNESS LINE MOVES NNW
ACRS THE CWFA THRU MIDDAY...LIGHT FROZEN PCPN CHANCES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO WESTERN NC. MUCH OF THE CWFA AND ESPECIALLY
THE MTNS ARE FCST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING...SO A LIGHT
ICING ACCUMULATION IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY BEFORE SFC
TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IS SEEN BTW THE OP MODELS WRT
TO DEVELOPING RIDGE AND LLVL MASS FIELDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.
LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED FOR MUCH IF ANY OF A MTN SN
THREAT. THE LLVL THERMAL FIELDS DIFFER TOO MUCH BTW THE 12Z GFS AND
THE WARM 00Z ECMWF TO CONSIDER ANYTHING BUT SLIGHT CHC POPS AND A
SHORT DURATION ENDING BY 06Z SAT. A DEEP STACKED RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION SAT AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WILL COMMENCE BEFORE SUNRISE
AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A BROAD LLVL THETA/E AIRMASS WILL
BE SLOW TO OVERCOME IN A TRANSIENT WEDGE CONFIG AND DYNAMIC HEATING
AND GOOD INSOLATION WONT BE ENOUGH TO BUMP MAX TEMPS MORE THAN THE
MID 50S NON/MTNS...UPPER 40S MTN VALLEYS.

THE WX PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXT
PERIOD. GOOD GOM MOISTURE RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SUN AN WILL
EXPECT A SATURATED COLUMN AND SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE CWFA BY
12Z SUN. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED UP TO CHC SHRA TO COVER THIS
SITUATION. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH A COLD FRONT
REACHING THE MTNS SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER GOOD AGREEMENT IS SEEN WITH
STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE SC MIDLANDS MON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NE AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SETUP COULD BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM.

A SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SAT NIGHT AND THE ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS COULD BE THE
BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT FOR THE CAROLINAS AND
NE GA TUE. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS IS COLDER AND FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY THE GGEM AND HPC HAS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF FOR THE CURRENT COLD SEASON IN GENERAL. IN
ANY REGARD...THE FORECAST WILL KEEP THE MID CHC POPS FOR
TUE...HOWEVER THE LLVL THERMAL FIELDS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS
TIME TO INTRODUCE ICING OR MIXED PRECIP FOR DAY 8...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE FAVORED SOLN IS A WARMER ONE. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME DOES PORTEND
TO A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE A SITUATION TO
STAY ABREAST OF FOR SURE.

TEMPS SUN WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH GOOD S/LY FLOW...HOWEVER
DEEP CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT MAXES FROM REACHING THE 60S...EXPECT
PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
MON...MAXES SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 50S NON/MTNS AND BY TUE A WET
WEDGE SHOULD KEEP MAXES A FEW CATS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS TO SHOW FOR IT. HOWEVER...A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS TO ALL TAF SITES FROM LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

AT KCLT...NOW THAT A WEAK LEE TROF HAS SET UP...A LIGHT WIND SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF WEST PRIMARILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WAS TABBED FOR 15Z BUT THIS COULD BE TWO HOURS EITHER SIDE.
WIND SHOULD COME IN FROM THE NW FROM THAT POINT ONWARD WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS WED AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
AT KAVL.  DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON THU. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THU NIGHT AND MOVES THRU FRI WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FAIR BUT BREEZY WX WILL FOLLOW FOR
SAT. BY SUNDAY...RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH THE GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ010.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ035-048-
     051-052-058-059-062>064-502-504-506-508>510.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-
     049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...CSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 30, 3:56 AM EST, 11 hours 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-310900-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
356 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR
SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-502-504-506-508>510-
SCZ001>003-310900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
356 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
VERY GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN AREAS FROM BANNER ELK...TO BURNSVILLE...TO
ASHEVILLE...TO HENDERSONVILLE...EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN AREAS
SURROUNDING THE WATCH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CAUSE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND
PERHAPS SOME SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-SCZ006>008-310900-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
356 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH
OF I-85.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ004-005-009>014-019-310900-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION NC-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
356 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 30, 2:46 PM ESTHigh Wind WarningGSPHabersham, Rabun27 hr
Dec 30, 2:46 PM ESTWind AdvisoryGSPRabun27 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in North Carolina, 2008Red Flag Warnings in Georgia, 2008Every red flag warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.