Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.  WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED SOUTH OF OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING THE DRY LLVL AIRMASS. INCOMING
19/00 UTC NAM DATA CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE LINGERING AC...PERHAPS
OCNLY BKN...ACRS MUCH OF THE CAROLINA FTHLS/PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURE FALL THRU 02 UTC AND
LINGERING MID-LVL CLOUDINESS...01 UTC LAMP GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
MINS NEARING GOING COOL FCST SO HAVE MADE JUST ISOLATED UPWARD
TWEAKS. RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING ARE 55 AT GSP...54 AT CLT
AND 46 AT AVL.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD
BE LARGE TOMORROW...WITH MAX TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW...BUT THEY
SHOULD RECOVER JUST A HAIR. SOUNDINGS ARE STILL QUITE CAPPED...BUT
WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE A LITTLE BETTER CU FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC...A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST...EXTENDING NE JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON WEAK SFC WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS HELPING INCREASE SOME LOW
LVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMP FCST...AS UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE AREA AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A S/W APPROACHING THE AREA ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD BACK TO A MORE
SWLY/SLY DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTN...AS WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA (ESP IN THE
MTNS). MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS WITH HIGH-END
CHC ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS
DECENT MIXING LIMITING CAPES TO ONLY AROUND 500-600 J/KG DURING PEAK
HEATING. SO I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POP JUST UNDER LIKELY FOR NOW. I
ALSO BUMPED POP UP TO MID- TO HIGH-END CHC SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON FROPA AND MODELS KEEPING SOME INSTABILITY LINGERING
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON AMPLITUDE
OF UPPER TROUGH. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A LEE TROUGH SETTING UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH IS SHOWN TO STALL JUST S AND E OF OUR CWFA.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTN...AND AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH RIGHT OVER OUR AREA...HAVE KEPT CHC
POP IN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN OF KEEPING A TROUGH IN THE EAST UNTIL NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE AS IT FINALLY BEGINS TO DEPART THE EAST COAST.

ON SUNDAY OUR AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF
AN OLD FRONT SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS. ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AGAIN WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND FURTHER DRYING BEHIND IT. THIS BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
EAST ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS MAINTAINING MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON WEDNESDAY THE BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...SPREADING MOISTURE... INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH...THEN INCRESAE TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.
LIGHT N TO NE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AGAIN
TODAY. THE OVERALL TREND IS THAT THEY WILL INCREASE...BACK NW TO W
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN... THEN VEER TO THE N AGAIN THIS EVE.
HI-BASED CU SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND COULD EVEN BECOME BKN AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN LATE FRI AS SHORTWAVES
APPROACH FROM THE W...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-200015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
804 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.