Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR THE GULF COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER E CONUS WITH JET OVER CAROLINAS KEEPING
SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. DRY...HIGH SFC PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W TODAY. FEW TO SCT CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVER MTNS. WITH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES TEMPS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND AFTN HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO DAILY
AVERAGES...LOOK FOR MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH 70S IN THE
MTNS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 8 TO 10 MPH WILL DRY THINGS OUT THIS AFTN.
EVEN WITH COOLER TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...SEE FIRE WX SECTION. LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH MOSTLY 40S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL ESSENTIALLY STAY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE
NW FLOW REGIME WILL TRANSLATE INTO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU NIGHT
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MIN TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
GENERATE A WAVE ON THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST COAST
TROUGH. ALL THE MODELS RESPOND BY INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND
EVEN GENERATING SOME QPF MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS ON FRIDAY.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SREF. HENCE...I WILL INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE
POPS ON FRI IN THE W AND MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
WAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA PER HPC GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEN
STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS NUMBERS FOR FRI AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MAINTAINING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING INTO THIS TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALIVE.
ON SUNDAY YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT...WHILE A
WEAKENING SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...THIS ONE DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ITS
WAKE. THIS LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR EAST ON TUEDAY. MAXIMUMS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL
UNDER CLOUD COVER...AND INITIALLY A MOISTENING AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SCT CIRRUS...THEN FEW TO SCT CUMULUS WITH HEATING. N WINDS
WILL PICK UP AT 8-10KTS...TURNING NW TO W WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THEN SWING BACK N AND TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THRU THU. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN LATE THU AND FRI AS SHORTWAVES APPROACH FROM THE
W...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AND A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PIEDMONT...AND EVEN PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIND WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM...FUEL MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST
GEORGIA ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REA LOW
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS TODAY...AND NOT FOR A
PROLONGED A DURATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RB
FIRE WEATHER...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-182145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
538 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HG