Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 021025
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-022300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0001.080102T1400Z-080102T2300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
525 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

VERY DRY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DIP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

ARK

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 021620
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-022300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080102T2300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
1120 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

VERY DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DIP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

HG

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 021933
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-030345-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.W.0002.080103T1700Z-080103T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
233 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 25
PERCENT AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. THE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVEL COMBINED WITH FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
AROUND 10 PERCENT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. A COMBINATION OF OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-022300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080102T2300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
233 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

VERY DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DIP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION...AND HELP PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
COMING WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND KMRX RADAR AND SFC
OBS SHOW LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE IMPROVING UPSLOPE. DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER COLD TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE MTNS AFTER 03Z...AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING MOISTURE AND
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 15 C OR
COLDER. THE ONLY WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW
STAYS MORE WNW THAN NW GIVEN THE DEPTH OF LOW PRES TO THE NORTH.
THIS RESULTS IN LESS OF A GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TAP IN PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES AND LESS THAN ORTHOGONAL MTN UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES UNDER THE COLD TROUGH WILL PRODUCE POSITIVE
CAPE VALUES AND DECENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW ELEMENTS IN
THE NW FLOW. THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEALTHY SNOW TOTALS.

THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS ALONG
THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE EVENT...AND THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE HANDLING OF THE TOPOGRAPHY. SNOW RATIOS OF 20 TO 1 OR
BETTER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FEATURED GIVEN THE VERY COLD THICKNESS
VALUES IN PLACE.

THE PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL MAXIMIZE EARLY WEDNESDAY
TO PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND BLOWING SNOW LOOKS CERTAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP ALL WIND...SNOW...AND WIND CHILL HAZARDS INTO
ONE WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...TRAILING VORT LOBE ENERGY IN THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED 1000 TO 850 MB MOISTURE AND NW
FLOW...WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH WED NIGHT. NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE EXISTING WINTER
PRODUCTS UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS CAN BE BETTER ESTABLISHED
TOMORROW. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THROUGH WED NIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE UPSLOPE ZONE.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST
COAST AND STRONG 1044 MB HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS QUICKLY RETREATS
NORTHEASTWARD. NOT CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY. CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN ORDER AS SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE FA.
THURSDAY HIGHS QUITE COOL WITH LOW 40S OUTSIDE THE MTNS AND LOW 30S
IN MTNS. SAME GOES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WITH
WIDESPREAD TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FAVORS
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH
RATHER NONDESCRIPT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FA. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN FEATURE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE IS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS HIGH BRINGING WARMER TEMPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM DOESNT APPROACH THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY
PER THE 12Z GFS. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT AND
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WARM
RATHER QUICKLY INTO THE WEEKEND AND RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND KAVL SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
VFR CEILINGS FROM THIS UPSLOPE AND THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE BY
EVENING. THE PERIOD OF BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND UPSLOPE MOISTURE
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT IN THE MTNS AND EARLY WED ACROSS PIEDMONT
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. KAVL SHOULD SEE CEILINGS STEADILY LOWER TO MVFR
06Z TO 10Z AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. VFR CEILINGS COULD SPREAD TO KHKY
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM KGSP TO KCLT IS INDICATED EARLY WED AS
WELL...BUT THE DRY SFC LAYER MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SO
IT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT PRESENT.

THE PRES GRAD WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH GUSTS IMPROVING TO 30 KT
AT KAVL BY EARLY WED. BRIEF AND WEAK DECOUPLING SHOULD LIMIT GUSTS
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GUSTINESS WILL RETURN WITH
MIXING BY 14Z AT THE PIEDMONT SITES.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR TO VFR CIG WILL LINGER IN
THE VICINITY OF KAVL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NW FLOW
MOISTURE DRIES UP. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST
AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND DOMINATE THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH...WILL AFFECT THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES FALLING
BELOW 25 PERCENT TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER. BASED ON FUEL MOISTURE
INPUT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY SERVICE...WILL ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ062-
     063-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...BSH/HG
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...HG
FIRE WEATHER...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-
502-504-506>510-SCZ001>014-019-020945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
445 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-020945-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
445 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ062-063-501-503-505-020945-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
445 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ARK