Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 141820
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

NCC121-142030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080614T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MITCHELL NC-
214 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

AT 209 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY RAIN STILL 
OCCURRING SOUTH OF SPRUCE PINE. FLOODING OF BASEMENTS AND LOCAL 
ROADS WERE BEING REPORTED IN AND AROUND THE SPRUCE PINE AREA. RUNOFF 
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE BRUSHY...GRASSY AND 
GRAVEYARD CREEKS TO OVERFLOW THIER BANKS.

THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND 
UNDERPASSES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND 
FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING 
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

TO REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL
FREE NUMBER...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3594 8205 3592 8202 3587 8202 3584 8213
      3589 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 180DEG 0KT 3587 8211

$$
PAT

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 141945
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

NCC121-142030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080614T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MITCHELL NC-
338 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR 
SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS... 
CROSSING SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 430 PM.

FLOODING HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN REPORTED IN THE SPRUCE PINE 
AREA...WHERE OBSERVERS HAVE MEASURED LOCAL 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL 
TOTALS SINCE NOON. DEEP PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS...AND RUNNING 
WATER IN DITCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED STREAM 
FLOODING FROM SPRUCE PINE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR LITTLE SWITZERLAND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER 
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL
FREE NUMBER...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3594 8205 3592 8202 3587 8202 3584 8213
      3589 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 180DEG 0KT 3587 8211

$$

HG

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 142030
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

NCC121-142036-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080614T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MITCHELL NC-
426 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
MITCHELL COUNTY...

AT 425 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATED THAT HOURLY RAINFALL 
RATES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR SPRUCE PINE. 
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LESSEN THROUGH 5 PM...WITH NO 
ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3594 8205 3592 8202 3587 8202 3584 8213
      3589 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 180DEG 0KT 3587 8211

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND ACROSS ALL
BUT THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S BUT FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES DURING
THE AFTERNOON INDICATE ONLY MODEST CAPE VALUES NOT SUPPORTING
SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFT SPEEDS. ATMOSPHERE IS ACTUALLY A BIT ON THE DRY
SIDE ALOFT SO RATHER STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT HAVE A LOT
OF FUEL TO TAP.  HOWEVER... DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN MOUNTAINS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL INCREASE POSSIBILITY
OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS EAST OF MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES IN WEAK CONVERGENT WIND FLOW. LATE
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL MODIFY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLIGHTLY KEEPING THEM NEAR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE AXIS S...WITH BROAD
UPPER TROF N...LEAVES REGION IN ZONAL FLOW SUN AS WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE OVER CWA. SFC FRONT ALSO MOVES ACROSS S HALF FORECAST AREA
DURING DAY SUN WITH SOLID CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AFTN. WITH
LOWER THICKNESS AND CLOUD COVER...AFTN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
AVG. FRONT PUSHES SE OF AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DIMINISHING BY MID EVE. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL SUN NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...BERMUDA HIGH KEEPS AREA IN S
FLOW SO WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING AND FEWER CLOUDS EARLY MON...TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AROUND 90 ACROSS PIEDMONT...80S MTNS.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY AND PUSHES THRU
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS TO MAINLY THE MTNS MON
AFTN-EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF SETTLES OVER THE E PART OF
THE COUNTRY TUE-FRI WITH COOL...DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW THRU MID WEEK. WITH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND NELY
FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEG OF AVG TUE...THEN
SETTLE AT OR BELOW AVG WED-THU BEFORE WARMING A COUPLE DEG FRI AS
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS HINT AT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NW FRI WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KCLT...BUT BASED ON THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION
VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH IFR. KAVL AND KHKY HAVE SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL BEFORE
DAWN...BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS YET...ONLY MVFR
FOG WILL BE CARRIED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COME UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE...MIXING OUT FOG.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONVECTION AND LOW VFR CEILINGS
GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT DUE
TO A VEERING SURFACE WIND MAY LIMIT CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. KAVL WILL HAVE VCTS IN THE TAF...AND ALL SITES BUT KCLT
WILL HAVE CUMULONIMBUS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING AT KAVL ...TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KCLT...WITH WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENING. MODEL GUIDANCE PAINTS LOW
VFR OR MVFR FOG AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT DAWN SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...SOME DRYING SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SOLID CHANCE SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AND
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

NCZ052-053-059-063>065-141645-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN
JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE...HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN
HAYWOOD...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH
1245 PM EDT...

AT 1155 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY NORTHEAST
TO BUNCOMBE COUNTY NEAR THE ASHEVILLE AIRPORT. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE..UNC ASHEVILLE...WOODFIN...SWANNANOA...
SKYLAND...ROSMAN...LAKE TOXAWAY...HENDERSONVILLE AND CASHIERS.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

PAT