Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 261539
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

NCC025-119-261730-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-080826T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CABARRUS NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR
NORTHERN MECKLENBURG AND CABARRUS COUNTIES...

AT 1138 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN MALLARD CREEK AND WILL MOVE INTO 
CABARRUS COUNTY TOWARD ROCKY CREEK NEAR THE IRISH BUFFALO CREEK.  
OTHER CREEKS IN THE AREA THAT ARE AT OR ABOVE BANKFULL ARE GAR AND 
CANE CREEKS.  

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH 
WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR CREEKS. 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3549 8031 3521 8050 3514 8072 3534 8076
      3524 8098 3534 8097 3535 8092 3537 8097
      3540 8095 3544 8096 3545 8094 3551 8095
      3551 8072

$$

PAT/LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
740 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY...CROSSING EASTERN TENNESSEE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF FAY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE AND CONTINUING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD TO COVER THE ENTIRE
CWA AND CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF FAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 4-5 INCHES RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH
THIS IN MIND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THE REST
OF THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS. MODEL HELICITY INCREASES AS
THE CIRCULATION OF FAY APPROACHES AND THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES
MAINLY THIS AFTN-EVE...ESP ACROSS THE W-N CWA AND THIS WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN THRU
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
U70S S...M70S N AND M60S-L70S MTNS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL TO AROUND
70 S...M60S N AND U50S-M60S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 3 AM EDT...THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FAY AND AN EAST COAST
SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...DECREASING THE AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER IN THAT THE NAM
STILL HAS AN UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
FAY...WHILE THE GFS MOVES FAY FARTHER EAST IN THE OH VALLEY...DRYING
OUR AREA OUT FROM THE WEST. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WILL BE USED IN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...DRYING OUT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND MATCHING UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN THAT REGARD.

WITH HIGH POPS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY AS
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO DECREASE. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 3 AM EDT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BECOME OUT OF PHASE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS BECOMING
CHARACTERISTICALLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. A BLOCK IN EASTERN
CANADA BREAKS DOWN EARLY IN THE PACKAGE...ALLOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO PROGRESS IN ITS WAKE. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS STILL SUPPORTS
THE LATEST HPC SOLUTION...AND THIS FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED AT
THIS TIME. FRI FINDS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FONT
IN THE POTOMAC VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
COLD FRONT ADVANCES TO THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS BY SAT...REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUN...AND THE GULF STREAM ON MON. A WARM AND
MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
DRYING WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY ON SUN AND MON. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN LOWER ABOUT A CATEGORY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT PREDOMINATE IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY IN GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW THRU THE
DAY AS REMNANTS OF FAY REMAIN OVER THE AREA. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH LIFR PSBL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL THRU THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN-EVE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 8-10 KTS FROM THE E...SE AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CIG/VSBY CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THU AS FAY MOVES THRU THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY/RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-270815-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FAY PASS JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>007-
270815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

NCZ082-261500-
UNION-
1019 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH
1100 AM EDT...

AT 1014 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF STURDIVANTS...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MONROE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL...THIS STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MODERATE ROTATION...AND
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A WARNING.

PEOPLE IN
EASTERN UNION COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

STURDIVANTS AND MARSHVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 7 PM.

LANE