Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 251314
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
914 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

GAC137-241-257-SCC073-251745-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080825T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-RABUN GA-OCONEE SC-
914 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN OCONEE...SOUTHERN RABUN...HABERSHAM AND NORTHERN STEPHENS
COUNTIES...

AT 913 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY RAIN WAS 
STILL FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. REPORTS OF RAINFALL UP TO 6.8 
INCHES IN THE TALLULAH FALLS AREA HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. LAW 
ENFORCEMENT HAS ALSO INDICATED THAT SEVERAL STREAMS HAVE COME OUT 
OF THEIR BANKS AND ARE FLOODING ROADS. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
TURNERSVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...AND LONG CREEK.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF PANTHER AND BRASSTOWN CREEKS 
ALONG WITH THE CHATTOOGA AND TUGALO RIVERS AND OTHER LOW 
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3471 8363 3476 8363 3481 8366 3490 8319
      3458 8318 3447 8365 3453 8365 3454 8364
      3455 8364 3467 8366

$$

PAT

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 251515
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1115 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

GAC137-241-257-SCC073-251745-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080825T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-RABUN GA-OCONEE SC-
1115 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN OCONEE...SOUTHERN RABUN...HABERSHAM AND NORTHERN STEPHENS
COUNTIES...

AT 1112 AM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TOTAL OF 6 INCH OR MORE IN 
AREAS NEAR DEMOREST AND A TOTAL OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN  
IN AND NEAR CLARKSVILLE AREA. CREEKS ARE STILL AT OR ABOVE BANKFULL 
AND SEVERAL ROADS IN THE CLARKSVILLE AN TURNERVILLE AREAS. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE 
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. 
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF 
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

LAT...LON 3471 8363 3476 8363 3481 8366 3490 8319
      3458 8318 3447 8365 3453 8365 3454 8364
      3455 8364 3467 8366

$$
PAT

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 251735
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

GAC137-241-257-SCC073-251745-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080825T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-RABUN GA-OCONEE SC-
135 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN OCONEE...SOUTHERN RABUN...HABERSHAM AND NORTHERN STEPHENS
COUNTIES...

AT 121 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED 
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE WARNED AREA. AUTOMATED RIVER 
GAGES INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE LARGER RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS 
WERE CRESTING AND BEGINNING TO FALL BACK WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WATER 
ON MOST ROADS WAS ALSO STARTING TO RECEDE...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3471 8363 3476 8363 3481 8366 3490 8319
      3458 8318 3447 8365 3453 8365 3454 8364
      3455 8364 3467 8366

$$

PAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
412 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FAY MOVES NORTHEAST AND PUSHES
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF FAY SHOULD
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS FAY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SW TODAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE S
AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
THE W CWA THIS MRNG. AS FAY AND THE COLD FRONT CONVERGE OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER THE SW CWA...TAPERING TO LIKELY CNTRL AND SOLID CHANCE IN THE
E. STABILITY WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY AND MODEL CAPES REACH
500-1000 J/KG BY MID AFTN SO WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE NEAR TERM...ESP OVER THE
W CWA NEAR THE MTNS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HI TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE L-M80S WITH 70S MTNS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
PIEDMONT AREAS...L-M60S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 1 AM EDT...THE REMAINS OF FAY WILL BE DOMINATE THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES TOP THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH A BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN OVER CANADA
FAVORING SURFACE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND FAY WILL IMPROVE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
FAY...AND ADDING ATLANTIC INFLOW TO BOOT. GUIDANCE POPS ARE QUITE
HIGH...AND LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AROUND 36 HOURS. HPC
QPF WILL BE USED...PLACING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN THE BEST
UPSLOPE AREAS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN LIMITED INSOLATION UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP BY
ELEVATED DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 1 AM EDT...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN THEIR
UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS...BUT LATE IN THE CYCLE THE GFS BECOMES FASTER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH UPPER FEATURES. ON THU A REX BLOCK EXISTS
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS BLOCKED UPPER PATTER PERSISTS INTO
SAT...THEN WEAKENS ON SUN...WHEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW RESIDES IN
QUEBEC.

THE HPC SURFACE SOLUTION STARTS OUT THU WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
OUR AREA...WHILE THE REMAINS OF FAY ARE IN NORTHERN MS. THE FRONT
REMAINS IN OUR AREA FRI...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE TN VALLEY
ON SAT...STALLING THERE SUN.

GIVEN THE COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN...AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS
FASTER TO LIFT OUR THE REMAINS OF FAY THAN THE HPC SOLUTION OR THE
HPC PREFERRED ECMWF...FEW CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF FAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BOUNDARIES IN THE VICINITY...AND A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLEX FORECAST AS REMNANTS OF FAY APPROACH AREA FROM THE SW.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY AFT 08-10Z WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
ACROSS W CWA IN DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSTMS THIS
AFTN SO INCLUDED CB CLOUDS MID-LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVE. MVFR
CIG/VSBY WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE EVE WITH LGT SHWRS.

OUTLOOK...MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF FAY.
EXPECT PERIODS OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN AND CHANCE OF LOW CIG/VSBY INTO
THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-261000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
537 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INCREASES IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DECREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH MORE THAN 8 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH UP TO
5 INCHES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...UP TO 3 INCHES NEAR INTERSTATE
85...AND UP TO 2 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85. EVEN WITH
THE DROUGHT AND RECORD LOW STREAM LEVELS...RAINFALL OF THESE
AMOUNTS IN THIS PERIOD OF TIME COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL OVER SPECIFIC
AREAS. IF CONFIDENCE IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INCREASES FURTHER...A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. PERSONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

07