Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
841 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(345 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008)
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(345 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008)
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH HYDRO ISSUES...DISCUSSED
BELOW...AND THE SVR THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SPC RECENTLY ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH OVER WI WITH THE MILWAUKEE
OFFICE ISSUING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SKIRTING THE AREA. EXPECT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WORKS INTO THE
AREA.

GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND TRAINING CELL POTENTIAL...
BELIEVE GREATEST QPF SHOULD OCCUR OVER OUR NW ZONES WITH AREAL
TOTALS AROUND AN INCH. LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY FAVORED SREF
QPF GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN HPC GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY THE SEVERE THREAT REFOCUSING IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-96 AND EAST OF 131. DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN SHOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(345 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008)
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MID RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. NOT MUCH CHANGED IN THE GRIDS.

AS FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS... A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM FROM MICHIGAN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE
EAST. HAVE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...(345 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008)
NO CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(841 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OUT OF ILLINOIS
AND WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STORMS
TO ARRIVE AT MKG BY 06Z AND THEN REACH GRR BY 08Z. THE STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND REACH LAN AND JXN BY 12Z...LASTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(345 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008)
THE THORNAPPLE RIVER ABOVE HASTINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL...
GETTING BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DUE TO A GREAT DEAL OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS
SHOULD STEADILY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     TJT
SHORT TERM:   TJT
LONG TERM:    IOD
MARINE        TJT
AVIATION:     OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:    TJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-132115-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-MASON-LAKE-
OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-
GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-
VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
759 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF MASON...LAKE
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.  PARTICULARLY HARD HIT RIVERS WILL INCLUDE THE
PINE...BIG SABLE...LINCOLN AND PERE MARQUETTE RIVERS. THESE RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING.  FLOODED...WEAKENED AND WASHED
OUT ROADS WILL BE A HAZARD FOR MOTORISTS.

THERE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF A BATTLE
CREEK TO JACKSON LINE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

MJS NJJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1013 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW FREESOIL           44.14N 86.26W
06/12/2008                   MASON              MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PART OF THE ROOF BLOWN OFF A CONVENIENCE STORE. SEVERAL
            TREES UPROOTED. DEBRIS WAS BLOWN NORTHEAST. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1109 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     FLOOD            3 SW FREESOIL           44.08N 86.26W
06/12/2008                   MASON              MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT U.S. 31 AND TOWN LINE ROAD.

&&

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1141 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N PENTWATER           43.87N 86.43W
06/12/2008  M1.25 INCH       MASON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES. STILL RAINING VERY
            HARD.

&&

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LUDINGTON               43.96N 86.44W
06/12/2008                   MASON              MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN THE LUDINGTON
            AND HAMLIN LAKE AREA. TIME APPROXIMATE FROM RADAR.

&&

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N SCOTTVILLE          44.02N 86.28W
06/12/2008  M4.00 INCH       MASON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 9 AND 1145 PM.

&&

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1214 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     HAIL             LUTHER                  44.04N 85.68W
06/13/2008  M0.25 INCH       LAKE               MI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL REPORTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

MKALEMBK