River Flood Warning 45, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(458 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008)
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA TODAY.  VERY
STRONG WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN OF THE CHILLY AIR AND SNOW.  AROUND AN INCH
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY...GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 131...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE EAST.  THE SNOW WILL BE WIND WHIPPED CAUSING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.  THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

THE WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...BUT MUCH OF
ITS PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME FROM ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(458 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST THIS MORNING.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS AWAY THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING RUNS THROUGH 5 PM.  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CLIP THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A BURST OF SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE UP TOWARD TWO INCHES AROUND LDM.  ELSEWHERE
THE SNOW WILL BE MORE SCATTERED WITH AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 PICKING
UP AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.  DESPITE THE LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS ROADS COULD BECOME
SLICK DUE TO THE QUICK FREEZE UP.  AND WITH THE ALL THE WIND...ANY
SNOW WILL BE WIND WHIPPED LEADING TO REDUCED VSBYS.  WE SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES.  ANY
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SHORT
DURATION TIME OVER THE LAKE.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL MOSTLY MISS THE GRR CWA.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT TRACKS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  MUCH
OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH OF THE
CWA.  WILL ONLY KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.  PCPN TYPE
SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR
DRAWN UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MONDAY
SYSTEM.  THEREFORE...THE TEMPS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND WILL
HAVE ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS STORM...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
THERE.  THERE WILL BE A QUICK DROP OFF TO THE SNOW AS ONE HEADS
SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(458 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH THE EURO SEEMING TO BE THE MORE STABLE MODEL.
LEANING A BIT MORE ON THE EURO IN THIS TIME FRAME. A LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR SNOW.
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DELTA T/S IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

BOTH MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GOING FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS GOOD WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...(458 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008)
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  WAVES WILL BE
OVER 10 FEET.  WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(657 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008)
MAIN AVIATION ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS WILL GUST AT TIMES OVER 50 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...REACHING MORE MANAGEABLE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 15-30 KNOTS.

SNOW IS WRAPPING THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE WITH THE SNOW PULLING AWAY THIS MORNING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(458 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008)
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SEVERAL ROADS HAVE WATER ACROSS THEM.
HOWEVER...COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOW THE
RUNOFF...IF NOT LOCK MUCH OF IT UP. SLOW IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
REALIZED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LM...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ST JOE TO MANISTEE.
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HALF OF CWA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    DUKE
MARINE:       JK
AVIATION:     DUKE
HYDROLOGY:    JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
624 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-291130-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
624 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH AT TIMES. THE WINDIEST PORTION OF THE
DAY WILL BE THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS SNOWPACK
MELTWATER AND HEAVY RAINS COMBINED TO PRODUCE FLOODING. RUNOFF WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY. SEE THE
LATEST RIVER AND FLOODING STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRING THIS MORNING FROM MUSKEGON AND NEWAYGO
NORTH TO LUDINGTON AND BALDWIN. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A
DUSTING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-291130-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
624 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AS GALE
FORCE WINDS PUSH WAVES INTO THE 10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE QUITE A BIT INTO TONIGHT...BUT WAVES WILL STILL BE IN THE
3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE BY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WAVES WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS INTO MONDAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DUKE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
847 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     HEAVY RAIN       IONIA                   42.99N 85.06W
12/28/2008  M1.23 INCH       IONIA              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8 AM.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
907 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HART                    43.70N 86.36W
12/28/2008  M1.09 INCH       OCEANA             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 AM.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
911 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST OKEMOS                  42.71N 84.41W
12/28/2008  M44 MPH          INGHAM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKALEMBK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
959 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST COOPER                  42.38N 85.57W
12/28/2008  M57 MPH          KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKALEMBK