River Flood Warning 30, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(347 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008)
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE WAS RIDING NORTH ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTHWEST
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(347 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008)
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A
LARGE SWATH OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE CWA SOUTHWEST TO ARKANSAS.
HPC QPF IS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE
STORM TOTALS IN THE 4-9 INCH RANGE POTENTIALLY. THE GROUND IS
SATURATED SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL GO TO RUNOFF. THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SE CWA. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY
MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA INTERACTS
WITH IKE. SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY LARGE...AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS...WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION TO A STORM OR TWO. GIVEN THE
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGD TO FALL TO 4C. THAT WILL BE QUITE A
CHANGE FROM THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WE/VE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. AS THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EAST TUESDAY...EXPECT A
SLOW MODERATING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(347 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
AFTER AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE WEEK OF STORMY WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER OVER TWO MONTH WITH A
PREVAILING LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...THE PATTERN
IS ABOUT TO CHANGE TO A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. ONE THAT
FEATURES A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN BOARDER. THAT PATTERN
CHANGE IS THANKS TO A RATHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM COMING ON SHORE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
IT SHOULD PREVENT THE CANADIAN POLAR AIR FROM DESCENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. INSTEAD OF THAT...
A LONGWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP
THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL GIVE A VERY WET
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN A CHANCE TO START TO DRY OUT.

&&

.MARINE...(347 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008)
WE/RE EXPECTED TO WINDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW MOVES PAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS SUCH WAVES ARE
PROGD TO INCREASE TO 4-6 FEET. THUS WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(746 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008)
IT WOULD NOW SEEM...BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL DATA AND ALSO
LOOKING AT THE BEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS... OUR STORM MAY WELL
TRACK FARTHER WEST THAN WE WERE THINKING EARLIER.  I MAY EVEN TO
WEST OF JXN. IN SO DOING I HAVE PUT 3 TO 4 HOURS OF STEADY HEAVY
RAIN ON ALL OF THE TAFS EXCEPT JXN AND LAN. ONCE THE STORM PASSES
THE AREA THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END BUT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(347 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008)
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE RFC SHOWS MANY RIVERS GOING TO FLOOD STAGE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEE ARBFLWGRR OR WGUS43 FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THE RIVER FLOODING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND HPC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL RUN RIGHT OFF INTO
THE RIVERS. SPOTTER REPORTS AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THE HEAVIEST
RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHERE THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN FROM IKE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ALSO FALL OVER THIS AREA. THUS WE/RE GOING TO KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH GOING IN THAT AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ISABELLA...MUSKEGON..
GRATIOT...MONTCALM...OTTAWA...KENT...IONIA AND CLINTON COUNTIES.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FROM ST JOE TO MANISTEE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     93
SHORT TERM:   93
LONG TERM:    WDM
MARINE:       93
AVIATION:     WDM
HYDROLOGY:    93

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
817 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE LANSING            42.72N 84.54W
09/14/2008  M2.94 INCH       INGHAM             MI   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
823 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE SOUTH HAVEN        42.38N 86.24W
09/14/2008  M3.44 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
907 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E ALLEGAN             42.53N 85.79W
09/14/2008  M3.38 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
942 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE ASSYRIA            42.45N 85.12W
09/14/2008  M3.20 INCH       BARRY              MI   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW GRAND RAPIDS       42.93N 85.70W
09/14/2008  M1.95 INCH       KENT               MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

0713 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DORR                    42.73N 85.72W
09/14/2008  M2.66 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SINCE FRIDAY...4.76.

0713 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BATTLE CREEK            42.30N 85.23W
09/14/2008  M4.17 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM.

0713 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BLOOMINGDALE            42.38N 85.96W
09/14/2008  M4.46 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM.

0735 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BYRON CENTER            42.81N 85.72W
09/14/2008  M0.66 INCH       KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 PM TO 7 AM READING. STORM TOTAL OF 2.84 INCHES.

0750 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JAMESTOWN               42.83N 85.84W
09/14/2008  M2.30 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL THROUGH 7 AM.

0758 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MARSHALL                42.26N 84.96W
09/14/2008  M4.25 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM.

0816 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE LANSING            42.72N 84.54W
09/14/2008  M2.94 INCH       INGHAM             MI   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM.

0822 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE SOUTH HAVEN        42.38N 86.24W
09/14/2008  M3.44 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM.

0906 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E ALLEGAN             42.53N 85.79W
09/14/2008  M3.38 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM.

0941 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE ASSYRIA            42.45N 85.12W
09/14/2008  M3.20 INCH       BARRY              MI   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1049 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N ALBION              42.26N 84.76W
09/14/2008  M7.50 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 9/12 THROUGH 1030 AM 9/14.

&&

MKALEMBK