Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS83 KGRR 161934
RFWGRR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
334 PM EDT WED APR 16 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MANISTEE NATIONAL FOREST...

.VERY DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE MANISTEE NATIONAL FOREST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MIZ037>039-043>045-170200-
/O.CON.KGRR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080417T0200Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-
334 PM EDT WED APR 16 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT...SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 40 MPH...TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES AND CURRENT DRY
CONDITIONS PRIOR GREEN-UP WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE MANISTEE NATIONAL FOREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUS...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS BY
10 PM.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

MEADE

000 
WWUS83 KGRR 170205
RFWGRR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EDT WED APR 16 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

.COOLING TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING WINDS HAVE REDUCED THE
FIRE DANGER.

MIZ037>039-043>045-170315-
/O.EXP.KGRR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080417T0200Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-
1005 PM EDT WED APR 16 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

COOLING TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING WINDS HAVE REDUCED THE
FIRE DANGER. 



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(428 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008)
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST. LOOK FOR BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS
TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 70. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(428 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008)
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY DEAL WITH WINDS TODAY AND THEN PCPN CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TODAY WILL BE RATHER WARM AND BREEZY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 70
IN MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG LLJ IN THE 50KT RANGE WILL BE PREVALENT
OVER THE NW CWA TODAY...AND THAT/S WHERE WE/LL SEE THE HIGHEST
WINDS. NAM BUFKIT WIND PROFILE SHOWS MIXING INTO THE 50KT LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NW CWA. GFS WINDS AREN/T AS STRONG. DUE TO LOTS OF
SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE MAXED. IF WE FIGURE AN 75-80 PERCENT MIX
DOWN RATE THAT/S MEANS WINDS IN THE MID-UPPER 30 KT RANGE...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MAYBE A BIT SHY. CURRENT SLATER
IOWA PROFILER SHOWS 55KT WINDS AT 2KM...WHICH IS A BIT WEAKER THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS THERE. PERHAPS GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO
STRONG WITH THE LLJ. AS A RESULT...WE/LL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE NW CWA.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AND BEGIN
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THERE IS SOME DECENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SREF POPS POINT TOWARD A PCPN
POTENTIAL IN THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA AS A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN RIDES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA. MODELS PROG THIS AS A SLOW
MOVING LOW...WHICH MEANS THE CHC OF RAIN WILL BE WITH US FOR A FEW
DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHEN THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT. SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE/LL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(428 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008)
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
AS INDICATED YESTERDAY THE CURRENT UPPER WAVE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM THAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA STRONGLY DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
MEAN TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THAT BOOTS OUT THE CURRENT SYSTEM
IN THAT AREA AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW LATE THIS WEEK. THE OMAGE BLOCK
FORECAST YESTERDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THAT OF COURSE THAT
DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD BUILD AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNTIED STATES. COULD BE OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF SUMMER
TEMPERATURES THIS YEAR BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FROM ALL OF THIS IS WHAT
HAPPENS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS (HENRY
RULE)? THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. IT ACTUALLY IS A TOUCH FARTHER NORTH. MORE
BECAUSE IT BUILDS A MUCH LARGER UPSTREAM RIDGE WHICH WOULD ALLOW
MORE OF THE RAIN TO REACH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. THE GFS DID WHAT
I EXPECTED IT TO DO...FORECAST A DEEPER SYSTEM...MOVING MORE
SLOWLY... AND TRACKING FARTHER NORTH. THAT WOULD PUSHES THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO SATURDAY FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THAT IDEA IS
SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN.

SO...WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM? WILL THE WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BE RAINED OUT? CLEARLY THAT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM KICKING
IT OUT IN THE FIRST PLACE... I COULD WELL SEE THE SYSTEM BEING
KICKED NORTHEAST LIKE THE GFS CONTINUES TO DO. THUS I BUMPED UP THE
POP TO 50 PCT FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT WOULD NOT BE A VERY WET
SYSTEM SINCE IT IS WELL OCCLUDED BEFORE IT COMES OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. WHAT I MEAN BY NOT BEING VERY WET IS RAINFALLS WOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE LESS THAN AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER 2 OR 3
DAYS.

WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST STRING OF DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGHS IN THE
RANGE OF 75 TO 85 DEGREES NEXT WEEK.  WE HAVE HAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S SEVEN APRILS IN A ROW (EVERY APRIL FROM 2001 THROUGH 2007 HAS
HAD A HIGH OF 80F OR HIGHER IN GRR). IF THE TREND IN THE GFS
CONTINUES WITH THAT OMAGE BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IT WOULD
SURELY GET RATHER WARM HERE NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS FIELDS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. SINCE
MODEL CAPES RUN WELL ABOVE 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT I
CHANGED THE SHOWERS TO THUNDERSTORM IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
LIKELY THOSE WOULD BE SLOWER TO COME IN GIVEN THE DEVELOPING
BLOCKING PATTERN.
&&

.MARINE...(428 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008)
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WE
ISSUED A GALE WARNING NORTH OF WHITEHALL TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDS THAT
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE AREA IS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
GREATEST AND WHERE WE/LL SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE INVERSION OVER THE WATER WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE
MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THAT WOULD REQUIRE A GALE
WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(640 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD (12Z-12Z). TAMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR WITH OVER 40 DEGREES BETWEEN THE DEW
POINT AND THE AIR TEMPERATURE FROM 1000 FT AGL THROUGH 500 MB AT
09Z. WINDS WERE 220/50 KT AT 2200 FEET AGL.  DAY TIME HEATING WILL
MIX THOSE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THUS THE WIND SHEAR WAS
DROPPED AFT 13Z ACROSS THE TAFS.  EAST-WEST RUNWAYS WILL BE DEALING
WITH CROSS WIND ISSUES DUE TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER DARK WEDNESDAY SIGNAL THE
APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
CLOUDS WILL HAVE BASES ABOVE 5000 FT. I PUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS AFTER
06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(428 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008)
THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. WE EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 70
DEGREES TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF THE
LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AOA 25 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPS AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL
RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(428 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008)
WE/LL SEE DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THEREFORE WE SHOULDN/T SEE RIVER RISES FROM
THIS PCPN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING TODAY FROM WHITEHALL TO MANISTEE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FROM ST JOSEPH
     TO WHITEHALL.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     93
SHORT TERM:   93
LONG TERM:    WDM
MARINE        93
AVIATION:     WDM
FIRE WEATHER  93
HYDROLOGY:    93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
551 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-171000-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
551 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GRAND RIVER AT COMSTOCK PARK
THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON MOST AREA RIVERS
BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY.

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS...TEMPERATURES RISING INTO UPPER 60S AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WHILE AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK...
FOR THE MOST PART... THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS DRY WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CHANGE AREA
RIVER LEVELS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ARE THE
EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ844>849-171000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
551 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WAVE HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WDM