Small Craft Advisory 77, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
426 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAJOR WINTER STORM IS THE
OBVIOUS CONCERN FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

A 997 MB LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER SW KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. A LARGE AREA OF WAA/ISENT LIFT WAS ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...WITH
RADAR/SATL SHOWING EVIDENCE OF A COUPLE FRONTOGENETIC BANDS OF
PCPN DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKS. LOCAL RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOWED PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER GRB CWA...WITH SOME LK-
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A MESOLOW) LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN LK MICH.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...
WITH THE SE KANSAS SFC LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH ILLINOIS AND N
INDIANA ON TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF
AMOUNTS. STG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS WAA/ISENT LIFT INCREASES...THE RRQ
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SETS UP...AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ARRIVES. FORCING WILL REMAIN STG THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT SE WITH TIME ON TUESDAY. TEMP/RH/OMEGA TIME
SECTIONS SHOW CROSSHAIRS SIGNATURE (CORE OF STRONGEST LIFT
COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE) FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME HEALTHY SNOWFALL
TOTALS. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL FROM AROUND ISW
TO GRB TONIGHT...THEN SAG SE INTO OUR FAR SE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-4 INCHES IN VILAS COUNTY TO
10-14 INCHES IN THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER WITH H8 TEMPS...AND ALTHOUGH
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL SNOW ATTM...HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SLEET
TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVG.

CONCERNING HEADLINES...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN A WATCH. ALSO ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSY FOR NORTHERN WI...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VILAS COUNTY.
HAVE STARTED ALL OF THE HEADLINES...EXCEPT FOR DOOR COUNTY...AT
22Z...IN ORDER TO CATCH THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOWFALL WHICH WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE DURING THE RUSH HOUR. END TIMES FOR THE HEADLINES
WERE BASED ON TWO THINGS. FOR OUR NORTHERN AND WSTRN COUNTIES...
HEADLINES WERE GENERALLY ENDED WHEN THE SNOW WAS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF. FOR THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS...KEPT HEADLINES GOING
LONGER DUE TO EXPECTED STG NE-N WINDS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW INTO THE EVG HOURS...AND FOR
THE ENTIRE NIGHT OVER DOOR COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...TUE NGT THRU NXT SUNDAY. INITIAL CONCERN WL BE
CLEANING UP TUE NGT AFT MAJOR SNOWSTORM DEPARTS THE AREA. LTR
CONCERNS CENTER AROUND TRYING TO TIME A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
WITH MDLS HAVING VARIOUS TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES...ESP WITH THE
SECOND CLIPPER LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE SFC LOW PULLS NE INTO THE ERN GREAT LKS TUE NGT WITH THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVR NE WI COMING TO AN END. ERN WI COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH TUE EVENING...BUT THE BIGGER PBLM MAY BE THE
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOWPACK AS NORTH WNDS BLOW AT 10 TO
20 MPH (15 TO 25 MPH NEAR LK MI) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WL THEREFORE
NEED TO CARRY THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MOST OF E-CNTRL WI THRU
06Z AND DOOR CNTY THRU 12Z WHERE STRONGEST WNDS TO PERSIST THE
LONGEST. ANOTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS ACROSS NRN WI AS VERY COLD AIR (8H TEMPS AROUND -22C
OVR LK SUPERIOR) POURS INTO THE RGN. THE WNDS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH OF
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT (VERSUS A MORE FAVORABLE N-NW COMPONENT) TO
REALLY DUMP A LOT OF SNOW ESP FOR VILAS CNTY. HAVE KEPT LIKELY
POPS FOR VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS AT AN INCH OR TWO.

THE LK EFFECT SNOWS FOR NRN WI WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WED MORNING
AS A RDG OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS. DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AND WNDS BACKING TO THE WEST SHOULD END ALL SNOW BY
MIDDAY. DESPITE THE RDG MOVG INTO WI...MDLS INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HI CLDS WED AFTERNOON AS WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
UPR MIDWEST AS WNDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON WED
WITH MAX TEMPS ABT 10 DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.

A WEAK CLIPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY DIVE SE
TOWARD LK SUPERIOR WED NGT. EVEN THO MSTR APRS TO BE LACKING...NE
WI TO RESIDE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT RGN OF THE UPR JET WITH A
SHEARED VORT MAX AIMED AT NRN/CNTRL WI. THEREFORE...EXPECT TO BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.
HAVE KEPT HIGHER CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE
OF THE SHEARED VORT MAX. THE CLIPPER SLOWS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
ON THU AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES OVR QUEBEC AND A
STORM MOVG UP THE EAST COAST. MAY NEED TO LINGER A SML POP ACROSS
ALL OF NE WI WITH HIGHER VALUES AGAIN OVR THE NORTH WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE CLIPPER. AIRMASS OVR WI DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY COLD
WITH 8H TEMPS FCST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM -6C TO -14C. HAVE NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGS FROM THE PREV FCST.

A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES PUSHES INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS THU NGT AS
THE CLIPPER SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO
CARRY ANY LINGERING POPS THU NGT SO HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FCST.
FRIS FCST IS RATHER MUDDLED ATTM AS THE GFS/UKMET ADVERTISE A
RATHER STG LOOKING CLIPPER TO MOV INTO NE ND BY 00Z SAT.
UNFORTUNATELY...NEITHER THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN HAVE THE SAME SPD OR
INTENSITY AS THE GFS/UKMET. DUE TO THESE LRG DIFFERENCES...PREFER
TO NOT MAKE DRASTIC CHGS TO THE FCST FOR FRI AND LEAVE A MINIMAL
CHC POP WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

DUE TO THE VAST DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MDLS WITH REGARD TO THE
SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NE WI...WL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS TO
SATS FCST. IF THE GFS/UKMET END UP BEING CORRECT...WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. BY THE END OF NXT WEEKEND...
THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IS TRANSITIONING TO A WEST COAST
UPR TROF AND EAST COAST UPR RDG. THIS WOULD PLACE NE WI UNDER A SW
FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOW SFC LOWS TO TRACK FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LKS. MUCH TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TIME THESE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER
THIS PATN WOULD MEAN IN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR NE WI. ONE
POSITIVE FROM THE CHG IN THE MEAN FLOW WOULD BE A RETURN TO AT OR
ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH
CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO LIFR/VLIFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
THIS EVG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ038>040-048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-021-030-031-035>037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 12 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ010>013-018-019.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ022.

&&

KIECKBUSCH/KALLAS

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