Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 032239
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
539 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

WIC073-032330-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-080803T2330Z/
MARATHON-
536 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR MARATHON COUNTY...

AT 534 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR MARATHON CITY...OR 11 MILES WEST OF WAUSAU...AND 
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. 

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIB MOUNTAIN AND RIB MOUNTAIN STATE PARK BY 545 PM...
  EVERGREEN...ROTHSCHILD...SCHOFIELD AND MOSINEE BY 550 PM...
  BEVENT AND PIKE LAKE BY 610 PM...
  GALLOWAY AND ELDERON BY 615 PM...

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF 
MOSINEE...AND WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK
THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4468 9026 4511 8976 4512 8922 4508 8921
      4503 8922 4502 8921 4468 8921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 297DEG 40KT 4491 8983

$$

KALLAS

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 032255
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

WIC073-032330-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-080803T2330Z/
MARATHON-
554 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR MARATHON COUNTY...

AT 551 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EVERGREEN...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF 
WAUSAU...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BEVENT BY 605 PM...
  PIKE LAKE BY 610 PM...
  GALLOWAY AND ELDERON BY 615 PM...

THIS STORM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE CANCELED EARLY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK
THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4468 9026 4511 8976 4512 8922 4508 8921
      4503 8922 4502 8921 4468 8921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 297DEG 40KT 4482 8958

$$

KALLAS

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 032307
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
607 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

WIC073-032316-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-080803T2330Z/
MARATHON-
606 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MARATHON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.

HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST 
MARATHON WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4468 9026 4511 8976 4512 8922 4508 8921
      4503 8922 4502 8921 4468 8921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 287DEG 44KT 4475 8945

$$

KALLAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND MON. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WL BE
TIMING/EXTENT OF TSTMS THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
MON AFTERNOON. SVR THREAT FOR LRG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HI PRES OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND
A SFC LOW OVR SE SD. A WRMFNT STRETCHED FROM THE SFC LOW SEWD THRU
CNTRL IA SEPARATING SEASONAL TEMPS/HUMIDITY FROM OPPRESSIVE HEAT/
HUMID CONDITIONS. AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
PRES INTO NW MN. RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUED TO PAINT TSTM ACTIVITY
(SOME SVR) ON THE EDGE OF THE BUILDING CAP ACROSS CNTRL WI AND NW
WI.

THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOV FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST TNGT. STRENGTHENING LOW LVL JET AIMED AT THE MIDWEST/WRN
GREAT LKS WL HELP LIFT A WRMFNT INTO SRN WI LTR TNGT...JUST AS THE
INVERTED TROF REACHES WRN WI. EXPECT TO SEE ADDL TSTM COMPLEXES TO
DVLP OVR THE UPR MIDWEST THIS EVENING WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND WAA TO THE NORTH OF
THE WRMFNT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO BE IN PLACE TO AID IN THE UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. AS CAPPING INVERSION WORKS EAST TNGT...ANY
TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD MOV MORE EAST THAN SE AS HAD BEEN THE CASE OVR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MOVEMENT WOULD FAVOR THE NRN HALF OF
WI AND PREFER TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA TNGT...ALTHO PCPN WL NOT REACH E-CNTRL WI TIL PAST MIDNGT.

ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN MON MORNING AS THE
LOW LVL JET WEAKENS. SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS WI
DURING THE DAY AND MAY STILL PROVE TO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDL SHWRS OR
TSTMS. INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE STG WITH CAPES APPROACHING 3K
J/KG...LIS OF -8 AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES. PRELIM
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE MORNING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH...AND THEN
HAVE TSTMS REFIRE OVR THE RGN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE
ARE STILL QSTNS AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THESE STORMS DVLP...WL
BROADBRUSH POPS OVR THE FCST AREA ON MON. A WARM AND STEAMY DAY ON
TAP WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MAIN FCST PERIOD OF
CONCERN IS THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD AS PROGGED S/W
TROF SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTS A LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES OVER. PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION
FROM EARLIER S/W ACTIVITY MONDAY AND BOUNDARY ISSUES MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS OF PCPN EARLIER MONDAY NIGHT SO DID NOT ATTEMPT TO TIME
ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. WILL PROVIDE A DECREASING PCPN TREND FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE AND SURFACE BUILDS IN.

COOLER AND DRIER REGIME THROUGH WED UNTIL ANOTHER S/W TROF WITH
CANADIAN FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THUR. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT PCPN CHCS GOING FOR THIS FEATURE. WILL
ATTEMPT TO HAVE AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY BUT WEATHER
PATTERN COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IF THE
PIVOTING UPPER LOW DEVELOPS NE OF THE FCST AREA.

NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATER THIS WEEK WILL PROVIDE COOLER TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVR MOST OF THE RGN INTO EARLY
EVENING...ALTHO RHI WL SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT TSTMS. ADDL
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVRNGT HRS INTO MON MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOP MON AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WL GO TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR TSTMS WITH HAIL AND STG WNDS PSBL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AK/TDH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
531 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-041045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
531 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT COULD BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXISTS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR AND ARE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THESE
PERIODS. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MORE DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-041045-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
531 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS HOWEVER...THE
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON THURSDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THESE PERIODS. BE SURE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE DETAILS ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
459 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

WIZ018-019-030-036-032315-
LANGLADE-LINCOLN-MARATHON-PORTAGE-
459 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 455 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES
NORTH OF SPENCER...OR NEAR MEDFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIB MOUNTAIN...6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAUSAU AROUND 540 PM...
  WESTON...6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOSINEE AROUND 545 PM...
  BEVENT AROUND 600 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

KALLAS