Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 011905
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
205 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

WIC075-011915-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-080801T1915Z/
MARINETTE-
203 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MARINETTE COUNTY...

AT 159 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MCALLISTER...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENOMINEE...AND 
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE 
MCALLISTER AREA...THEN PASS EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. IF OUTDOORS...GO TO A STURDY SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4517 8767 4538 8799 4551 8781 4549 8778
      4545 8784 4537 8785 4537 8775 4540 8768
      4536 8763 4521 8771 4510 8756 4507 8757
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 315DEG 26KT 4532 8772

$$

JS

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 011915 RRA
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
215 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

WIC075-011925-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-080801T1915Z/
MARINETTE-
215 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MARINETTE COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4517 8767 4538 8799 4551 8781 4549 8778
      4545 8784 4537 8785 4537 8775 4540 8768
      4536 8763 4521 8771 4510 8756 4507 8757
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 315DEG 26KT 4531 8771

$$

SKOWRONSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
319 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUSED ON TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF STATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF MN ARROWHEAD.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL WI...INTO NE IA. HI
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MN/DAKOTAS SHIFTING EAST. ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY FORMED NE MN THIS EVENING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...CONTINUES
TO PUSH EAST INTO WI...SUPPORTED BY LFQ OF JET. EARLIER SHIFT
BROUGHT POPS INTO NORTHERN WI FOR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...WILL SHIFT THOSE POPS FURTHER SOUTH FOR THIS AM AND ADD
THUNDER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPPER SHORT WAVE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN TROF AMPLIFYING FLOW OVER AREA BY TONIGHT.
BEST DYNAMICS TO BE OVER NORTHEAST WI MID DAY/AFTN. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH 850 LIS AROUND -2 AND SFC CAPES
BETWEEN .5 AND 1K DEPENDING ON WHAT MODELS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE. WILL GO WITH ISOLD TO SCT WORDING
IN GRIDS.

NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND SAT.
TRENDED TEMPS NEAR MAV FOR HIGHS...THOUGH NOT AS COLD ON MINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
ON WHERE THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT.
GFS WOULD SUGGEST WEST AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
AND WHILE THE WRF MODEL FOCUS PRECIPITATION SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. BASED ON STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK 850MB
WARM ADVECTION FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST. DEPENDING WHERE CONVECTION
SETS UP...PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON
YOUR MODEL CHOICE. GFS DEPICTED ELEVATED CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS DEPICTING STRONG
CAPPING OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKER CAP AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BREAK OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS ALSO WOULD
SUGGEST A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 24 C OVER THE SOUTH. AGAIN BOUNDARY AND
LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
THE WRF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS OF
MONDAY MORNING. THINKING OF A COMPROMISE IN THE FRONTAL POSITION.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DUE TO THE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH BOUNDARY ON THE WRF. WILL
NEED TO SEE HOW CONVECTION SUNDAY IMPACTS THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION MORE VIGOROUS SUNDAY...A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION
LIKE THE WRF WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE.

LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS AM WITH LCL LIFR VSBY/CIGS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT MVFR VSBYS/CIGS
IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING DAYTIME PERIOD AS SHORT WAVES DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/ECKBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1207 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-021715-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1207 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM WAUSAUKEE TO CLINTONVILLE TO RIPON.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE STATE. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO ESTIMATE THE SEVERE RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-021715-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1207 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MOST OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE
BETTER ABLE TO ESTIMATE THE SEVERE RISK THAT MAY BE POSED BY THESE
STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
117 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

WIZ011>013-019>021-031-036>039-045-048-049-073-074-011915-
BROWN-CALUMET-FLORENCE-FOREST-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN MARINETTE
COUNTY-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-OUTAGAMIE-PORTAGE-SHAWANO-SOUTHERN
MARINETTE COUNTY-SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-WAUPACA-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
117 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...

AT 112 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN
PORTAGE COUNTY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
CLINTONVILLE...FREMONT...NEW LONDON...LAKE POYGAN AND GILLETT.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

KALLAS