Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DRY SLOT WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SCOURED OUT SOUTH OF HIGH 29.
TO THE NORTH...LOW CLOUDS AROUND ONE THOUSAND FEET WERE NOTED.
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. EVEN AT THIS HOUR...SHOWERS WERE NOTED UNDER THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. FOR TODAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO WORK INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST...MAINLY FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CONTINUED
NUMEROUS DEPICTION/WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS COLUMN BEGINS
TO SATURATE. LIKE LAST WEEKEND...HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR
TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIFTED INDICIES DROPPING TO -5 C
WITH CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MAY STILL NEED TO WORRY ABOUT LOW
TOPPED SUPER CELLS THAT COULD GENERATE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
WEAK TORNADO.

SPC HAS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MORE FOCUS WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER
LOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEATING THIS MORNING MAY CAUSE A
FEW STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE DID RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE BIG PICTURE HAD THE 500MB LOW AND SURFACE LOW DEPARTING THE
REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LEFT
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD BE DONE BY 06Z. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SOME DRY WEATHER. UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THUNDER IS LESS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...FARTHER NORTH OF THE FRONT.

LOOKS LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SO HAVE GONE
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF IRON MOUNTAIN TO WAUTOMA LINE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIME HEATING AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST/MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HAIL...
GENERALLY SHOULD BE FROM PEA SIZE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH. A FEW STORMS
SOUTH OF GREEN BAY TO WAUSAU LINE COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE HAIL UP
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIN WHEEL
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. TIMING THE SHOWERS IN THE TAF WILL BE HARD
BASED ON THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ECKBERG/MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-291100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THOSE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL MORE THAN A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH SHOULD BE REPORTED TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LMZ521-522-541>543-291100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THESE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             APPLETON                44.26N 88.40W
06/28/2008  M0.75 INCH       OUTAGAMIE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JKL