Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1133 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

.UPDATE...MODIFIED GRB SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING USING FCST TEMPS
AND PROJECTED H5/H8 TEMPS SUGGEST A CAPE OF 1100 J/KG. MAIN S/W
TROF WITH SCT SHRA/TSRAS PASSING THROUGH THE DLH AREA AT 11 AM. AS
A RESULT UPDATE NW WI TO MENTION SCT PCPN WORDING...BUT KEPT CHC
WORDING ELSEWHERE DUE TO TIMING OF THIS BAND WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EARLY EVENING FOR EC WI. THE AIRMASS DOES
GRAD BCM MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MID LEVEL CAPPING AT
GRB WILL PROVIDE RESISTANCE INITIALLY...BUT NOTED THIS CAPPING
DIMINISHES FOR POINTS WESTWARD AS PER 12Z MSP RAOB AND AVAILABLE
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AT CWA AND ATW AT 15Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008...

SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD CONCERNING
THE LOCATION OF THE MEAN LARGE SCALE FEATURES. MEAN TROF POSN WL
BE OVER THE ERN STATES WHILE RIDGE POSN WL BE OVER THE ROCKIES.
AMPLIFICATION PHASE NOW UNDERWAY...AND SHOULD PEAK EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THE FLOW SHOULD DEAMPIFY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
FCST PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY FLAT WNWLY UPR FLOW EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

THE FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD.  A
FEW ROUNDS OF SCT TSRA/SHRA EXPECTED...BUT PCPN AMNTS WL PROBABLY
END UP BLO NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/THU. ANOTHER SHRTWV WL DROP SE INTO THE FCST
AREA TDA. THIS WL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE YDA...AND WL PROBABLY
GENERATE A WK SFC REFLECTION OVER ERN WI BY LATE AFTN. DWPTS SHOULD
STAY UP ENOUGH TO YIELD CAPES IN THE 750-1000 J/KG RANGE BY LATE
AFTN. GIVEN THE COOLER UPR TEMPS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING...WOULD
EXPECT SCT TSRA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NE. IF SFC
REFLECTION BECOMES STG ENOUGH TO ASSIST CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST
MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOW-END SVR EVENTS. WL GO WITH A MENTION OF ISOLD HAIL AND
WINDS APPROACHING SVR IN THE MORNING HWO.

PCPN COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT BACKED IT DOWN TO JUST
SHRA. SOME MID-CLDS WL BE PASSING THROUGH...BUT GIVEN TYPICAL TRENDS
DID NOT WANT TO GO WITH MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE GRIDS.

ERN WI MAY BE BRUSHED BY LFQ OF WK SPEED MAX DIGGING INTO AMPLIFYING
ERN TROF THU. WENT WITH CHC POPS IN THE E...BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER FOR
NOW.

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUID TEMPS TDA/TNGT/THU.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVIAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ADD UP TO NICE WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AIR WILL BE DRY...SO A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE LIKELY. THE
NORTHWOODS COULD HAVE SOME LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 80. UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
BEGINNING MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INSISTANT ABOUT THIS AND THE
GFS IS TRYING TO COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE INCREASES. TIMING OF
SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT IN THE RELATIVELY FAST FLOW.

AVIATION...SCT TSRA EXPECTED TDA...MAINLY BTWN 16Z-23Z. WL MAKE
ISSUANCE-TIME DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXPLICITY INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN PARTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL NEAR 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-071700-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE HAIL NEAR 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.