Frost Advisory 3, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS73 KGRB 250049
NPWGRB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
749 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.A COOL DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  FROST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER
LOW-LYING AND CLIMATOLOGICAL COLDER LOCATIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.

WIZ005-010>012-251200-
/O.CON.KGRB.FR.Y.0003.080825T0800Z-080825T1200Z/
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON
749 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY. 

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LOW-LYING AREAS. THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION BY MORNING. LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO
LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

$$

JS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

.UPDATE...VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE ARROWHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROF WORKING OVER NE WI EARLY TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOWER 30S AND THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER NRN WI
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH CALMING WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS. NOT SURE IF FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD...BUT CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL GO AHEAD WITH AN ADVISORY TO PROVIDE SOME
HEADS UP FOR THE LOCATIONS IN THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS. LOCATIONS
IN THE VICINTY OF THE MANY LAKES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE
PROTECTED.

WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS AND ZONES SOON.

TDH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPS.

SFC OBS AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LK
SUP AND THE MN ARROWHEAD. IN ADDITION...A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH
THAT RGN...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
OVER NE MN. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS WERE WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO NW/FAR NC WI...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS GRB CWA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF MOISTURE MOVG SE ACROSS WI DURING
THE DAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NC
WI THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CU RULE SUGGESTS THAT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. MIXING THROUGH 850-825 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...AS DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT FCST.

A RENEWED SURGE OF DRY AIR SHOULD ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LKS RGN.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE OPTED TO SIDE
WITH THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT...AS CLR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS RESULT IN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
IN NC/FAR NE WI SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...LEADING TO
PATCHY FROST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MIXING THROUGH 850-825 MB
ON MONDAY SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A FLATTER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THEY PREVIOUSLY SHOWED...AS
MENTIONED IN HPC EXTENDED DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH SYSTEMS SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO
REACH THE AREA DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM PERSISTENT
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE TRIMMED POPS IN GRIDS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST...MOSTLY FOR
AESTHETIC PURPOSES. THESE WILL NOT APPEAR IN THE ZONE FORECAST
WORDING. MAIN PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STARTING TO MAKE
THEIR WAY OUT OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

A GENERAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE REGION...BUT WINDS OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE COOLER THERE.

AVIATION...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN NC WI
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. A
CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE RGN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...
LEADING TO CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
336 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-250845-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
336 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-250845-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
336 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

KIECKBUSCH/MG