Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WGUS63 KGRB 080201
FFAGRB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
901 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...FLOOD THREAT HAS DIMINISHED IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

.THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEY MOVED QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
LIMIT RAINFALL TO AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE MORE RAIN IS LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH.

WIZ045-048>050-080315-
/O.CAN.KGRB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-080708T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...
TWO RIVERS
901 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELED.

ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT TO CAUSE FLOODING...SO THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED.
EVEN THOUGH THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED...IT IS WISE TO STAY
ALERT IF YOU LIVE NEAR FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHEN HEAVY RAINS ARE
OCCURRING.



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS NOAM VERY LOW AMPLITUDE.
MEAN TROF POSN STILL IN THE E...AND WL SEE SOME AMPLIFICATION EARLY
THIS WK AS SHRTWV HEADS EWD INTO THE TROF POSN. BUT WITH THE WRN
RIDGE NOW GONE...THE AMPLIFICATION WL BE LIMITED AND SHORT-LIVED
AND THE FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO NEARLY ZONAL LATER IN THE WK. A SIG
PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
FCST PERIOD. STG UPR TROF DIGGING TOWARD THE PAC NW WL RESULT IN
MEAN TROF POSN DEVELOPING OUT W...WITH UPR RIDGE SHIFTG INTO THE
ERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IN THAT TROF WL HEAD
ENEWD TOWARD ERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...THE PATTERN WITH A TROF IN
THE W AND FLAT RIDGING IN THE E WL REMAIN.

SIG PCPN EVENT EXPECTED LATER TDA AND TNGT AS SHRTWV APPROACHES
THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WARM AND VERY
MOIST AIR MASS IN THE RGN. DRIER WX WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN AT MOST
EXPECTED FOR MID-WK. MORE SIG PCPN CHCS THEN RETURN FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NR THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WET PATTERN...BUT THE DEVIL WL BE IN THE
DETAILS.

WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY WL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AIR AND
NR NORMAL TEMPS FOR A COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS HVY RAINFALL AND SVR WX
POTENTIAL TDA AND TNGT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW STRETCHED ACRS THE FCST
AREA...AND WL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE DURING THE DAY. AIR MASS S OF THE
FRONT WAS WARM AND HUMID...WITH LARGE RESERVOIR OF SFC DWPTS AOA
68F. SML MCS NOW E OF THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON ACRS THE
FCST AREA RIGHT NOW. WATCHING SCT TSRA DEVELOPING IN NE IA...AND
CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADED ENE FROM THE FSD AREA. SHOULD BE SOME SUN
EARLY TDA...THOUGH THERE WL BE SOME FG TO BURN OFF. THEN COULD
SEE STORMS FIRE NEAR THE FRONT OR JUST HAVE THE STUFF FM THE W
MOVE IN. CHOSE TO GO WITH CHC POPS THIS MORNING. TOOK POPS OVER
THE S/SE UP TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTN AS THAT WL BE WHERE FRONT WL BE
LOCATED. ADDED MENTION OF HVY RAINFALL FOR THE AFTN. APPROACHING
UPR SHRTWV SHOULD CAUSE LLY TO STRENGTHEN AND GET DIRECTED INTO
THE AREA TNGT...SO TOOK THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UP TO CATEGORICAL.
MAINTAINED MENTION OF HVY RAIN. SYNOPTIC SET-UP CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FLASH FLOODING. BUT GIVEN THAT I CAN/T PIN DOWN A
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH AN ENHANCED RISK AND THE FACT THAT
WE/VE BEEN FAIRLY DRY FOR A FEW DAYS DID NOT WANT TO BLANKET THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WL PLAY UP IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN ESF.

SVR THREAT A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. SHEAR INITIALLY WL BE RATHER
WK...BUT COULD CERTAINLY GET SOME WET MICROBURSTS ON STRONGER CELLS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MESO-SCALE AREAS OF
STRONGER SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT AS THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENT WHEN STORMS ARE MORE
DISCRETE. SVR THREAT WL LIKELY BECOME PRIMARILY ONE OF DAMAGING
WINDS TNGT. LATE AFTN CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND
COME EWD/ENEWD ACRS THE FCST AREA. APPROACHING SHRTWV WL LEAD TO
SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELDS AND HENCE SHEAR DURING THE
NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON EXPLICIT SVR IN THE GRIDS/ZONES
FOR NOW...BUT WL HIT FAIRLY HARD IN THE HWO.

MCS COULD STILL BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY TUE...SO KEPT CHC POPS
EARLY. THEN GIVEN THE AMNT OF CONVECTION TNGT IT/S TOUGH TO SEE MUCH
ELSE GETTING GOING BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN. BEST CHC FOR REDEVELOPMENT MAY BE IN THE FAR E/SE
DURING THE AFTN. ADJUSTED GRIDS TOWARD THAT SCENARIO.

WENT ABV GUID FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA TDA AND NR GUID TNGT. WENT
ABV GUID OVER E-C WI TUE AS THAT AREA NORMALLY WARMS WELL IN WLY
FLOW AS EXPECTED TUE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WED. GFS INDICATED LIFTED
INDICIES DOWN -2 C AND SOME SMALL CAPE. WITH BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...DID RAISE RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE FAR NORTH BY 10 PERCENT AND ALSO DID MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE SUNSETS. DID ADD A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD.

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE THURSDAY PERIOD. IT APPEARS
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. HOW QUICK IT WILL RETURN WILL DEPEND WHERE
WEDNESDAYS BOUNDARY SETS UP THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED
RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY. AS THE WARM FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
WILL TREND WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH...
BUT FRIDAY SHOULD TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID. 850MB TEMPERATURES OFF
THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AWAY FROM THE BAY
AND LAKE. ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO 90...EVEN VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE PICTURE BECOMES MUDDLED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS 00Z GFS
QUICKER IN PUSHING FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF. GFS WOULD
BRING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION WHILE
ECMWF WOULD BRING FRONT SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH. FRONT DOES NOT GET VERY FAR SOUTH...SO
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...CHC OF TSRA PRETTY MUCH THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WL ATTEMPT
TO PICK OUT MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR TSRA FOR EXPLICIT MENTION
IN THE TAFS. WL ALSO PROBABLY HAVE LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SKOWRONSKI/ECKBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
123 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-081445-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
123 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. IN
ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY
RAINS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME LATE THIS WEEK
AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION
ON WHEN STORMS ARE LIKELY AND ANY RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-081445-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
123 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
IN ADDITION...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE...AND
OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME LATE THIS WEEK
AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION
ON WHEN STORMS ARE LIKELY AND ANY RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE
STORMS.